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JG220

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Everything posted by JG220

  1. JG220

    Brexit

    Alright, I'm happy to accept I made a mistake on that one point. I'm man enough to own up put my hands up. I take that as good debate, I'll be the first to say I'm not always right (I usually am though 😛). In this case I'm not convinced it changed the argument significantly. I'm afraid I can't find anything useful on tax evasion. From my own experience then, I'd say it's pretty mixed. Dealing with the trades does seem to be where it is most prevalent, and I do try and avoid it. I do hope you won't stifle the conversation on this thread. I've never addressed a personal attack at anyone, and I've not complained (only questioned) when it has been directed at me. The argument can get a bit heated on occasion and I personally don't mind it (even when it got personal towards me) and I don't have anything against @C8RKH, nor would I want him silenced either.
  2. JG220

    Brexit

    Ah yes, good point. I miss-read that. Finally, some decent and sensible debate. I stand corrected. In any event 2.2% of the total welfare bill is relatively small. It would be interesting to know how many UK nationals are claiming benefits (especially retirement ones in France for example) in the EU. This article (if I have read it correctly!) suggests around 30k (but that they are much more generous than we are) https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu Do we really believe though that Immigrants are 'taking away our jobs'? I thought we already had mass resource shortages, due to the effects of pre-brexit (be they nurses, fruit pickers etc)
  3. JG220

    Brexit

    Steve, some responses to your points I think you're right about the housing crisis. While it may partly be down to net migration, the issue is that housing, in the south east at least, is just too expensive. Swathes of housing in these areas are just investment vehicles (often unlived in). I don' think that's fundamentally a migration issue, and it would be quite easy to legislate against. As for EU immigrants they are net contributors. only 2.2% of EU migrants in UK claim benefits according to this https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/how-many-eu-migrants-claim-benefits-in-the-uk/ (the data is 4 years old, I'll grant you that, however suspect it hasn't shifted either way). I don't think that protectionism will save manufacturing. Why would Brexit save those jobs? The UK will have to sign up to traffic agreements with the EU, and likely other nations post WA, and coming form a position of weakness means we'll get a deal which will be unfavourable at best. Even if, let's assume that the deal was at least as good as we have it now, still those manufacturing jobs are just as likely to be at risk as they are now. Why would anyone wanting access to the European (the UK market, while attractive, is still going to be too small to make major investment for access to it only) market build in Britain? I couldn't agree with you more about the state of investment in the UK, especially in Tech. Actually at the moment, it is largely driven by Brexit uncertainty. Investment £s are not flowing and it's a big issue. VCs are waiting until there is some kind of white smoke for what will happen next. Meanwhile the rest of Europe is pining for its Brexit dividend, and the capital investment is going there instead. To a certain extent the damage is already done. I like Riesling and Camembert, so hopefully those will be low tariff items 😜
  4. JG220

    Pyrenees trip

    I'd really recommend Pau. It's a beautiful city. It's also a street circuit but i don't think there is any racing on the weekend you are there https://www.grandprixdepau.fr/en/pau-historic-grand-prix/ From Pau, take the D940 to Lourdes, stop off there for Lunch, again a magical town. From Lourdes the D821 to Argeles Gazost and from there the D921 to Luz Saint Sauveur. Absolutely wonderful road. And not ofter busy if you are early enough. From there you'll have to go back on yourself a bit on D918 towards Arreau and you can cross into Spain if you like around Tramazeigues. Lovely lovely part of the world.
  5. JG220

    Brexit

    Is that really necessary?
  6. JG220

    Brexit

    Neither have I, I can just see the bigger picture. I can be British and European. Though increasingly, i'm embarrassed about the former. Another good article: https://www.ft.com/content/5f3df8bc-4c03-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb64?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6&fbclid=IwAR0orTI-UmbT9wrW60tHPvWpiuEPRS-qnm4eNBsU-2h_wH3aMdXBvJNMqx4
  7. JG220

    Brexit

    😁 I’ve got 3 German cars too 😜 (is the Vx German or French? - I’ll go German given it was under Opel ownership when it was made, and only sold to PSA in 2017iirc) I’m a model European 😉
  8. JG220

    Brexit

    I don’t think we know that. One tging is clear though I think a leave campaign would be hard to beat given that they woul mobilise fast and have a very clear message which will resonate (however wrong I think it would be) by by the way the EU has been perfectly proper in the negotiations (apart from the silly dance) . The UK on the other hand has been a sham.
  9. JG220

    Brexit

    It was at 4/1 last night before the EU came to the rescue. Actually you can still get 11/4 at the moment on no deal. You can also get 5/2 on Art50 being revoked.
  10. Fair. It was marginally better than the wind noise.
  11. Lots of cups in here from a trip to spa last week
  12. JG220

    Brexit

    I still think there is a less than 1% chance of a no-deal/Hard (call it what you want) Brexit next week. It's everything thereafter we need to worry about (on both sides of the debate).
  13. JG220

    Brexit

    The debates though on recent 100k signatures have amounted to little more than a question in parliament. Look at how successful the top 10 have been (0-10 in case you don’t want to click the link) https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2017/01/do-online-petitions-actually-work-numbers-reveal-truth
  14. JG220

    Brexit

    And it didn’t get much traction.
  15. JG220

    Brexit

    Its about more than Brexit though isn' t it. its now all about their own personal prospects. No one really believes in anything. Bit depressing really .
  16. JG220

    Brexit

    I can’t remember three days in a row like these in parliament.
  17. JG220

    Brexit

    All good points. I still think that the benefits outweigh those clear issues and downsides. The ammemdment selection for tonight is very interesting! - 2nd referendum made it through despite 100 MPs agains it - Preventing May from bringing her deal back again also made it through.
  18. JG220

    Brexit

    Steve, I run a medium size software & systems integration business. I’ll try a short answer on Europe: I believe in Europe, the reasons it came about and what it stands for. It has held us to account in ways which we had seemed unable to (EHS, working directives, the environment more generally, fiscal regulation and so on and so on. The fact we are putting all European directives into British law points to that. I accept we might repeal some of them in future if we seek less alignment with the EU). Fundamentally as a nation we have agreed with the vast majority of the European mission evidenced by our voting rates and the use of our veto. European collaboration can rival the US and the now rapidly emerging superpower of China. Whether that is in space, in military, in IT, in finance, in the automotive sector and many others. I like working with our European colleagues and I speak 3 languages (well, alright, two fluently and just about get away with the other) joined up working, in the same conditions, without friction helps towards collaboration and success. Our most successful delivery teams (back to the job for a moment) are the most diverse, in experience, in thought, in gender, in ethnicity and so on. Diversity breeds performance and so I believe in free movement as an enabler (it can be done outside of Europe too, its just harder) to our prosperity. It is imperfect, all good things are. Overly beaurocratic, inefficient, slow to change. I accept all those things. I also think that the good outweighs all the bad by a factor of many. Fundamentally i’m embarrassed that when we have some significant issues in our nation to solve, child poverty, knife crime, the higher edu system (and schools more generally at the moment - £10 per student per year for all their kit is a discrace), House of Lords reform, the NHS, our defence spending, our critical national infrastructure we will have wasted not only the money (the £2b above) but the time and the energy on something which increasingly looks like will be a slightly less good position than we were in before.
  19. JG220

    Brexit

    I actually think that Europe would welcome Britain ‘back’ (given that it hasn’t left) with open arms. It would be a very strong message to the general rising of far right anti-European (just to be clear I’m not calling brexiteers far right) sentiment in Europe. I agree though that it causes all sorts of issues. It certainly needs another vote, the result of which would be far from clear. I’m personally hoping for a long extension. 2-4 years? Something like that, to have time to start again (and spend another £2B. /Rolls eyes) and end up with a BRINO or no Brexit at all (so long as that is what was voted for in a new vote). Or they vote for May’s deal and lets just be done with it. We can reintegrate later.
  20. JG220

    Brexit

    This is just as interpretative as your accusations of my postings. $1T of assets have been moved out of London since the Brexit process started (that’s about %10) https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/investing/brexit-banks-moving-assets/index.html On the other hand, Fintech investment is at all time high and that’s brilliant for us. https://qz.com/1549956/investors-are-shrugging-off-brexit-and-pouring-money-into-uk-fintech-startups/ So it’s probably a bit more mixed that your statement. None if this is black and white. I’m very happy to celebrate the successes, but just imagine how much further on we would be if we had not spent £2b on Brexit. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/summary-costing-brexit I wouldn’t underestimate the other European nations either, and certainly wouldn’t couch them in those terms. Germany and France especially.
  21. JG220

    Brexit

    You’re right, I perhaps haven’t responded to all your points. I try and hit the high nails. With most of my responses i try to back up with evidence (apart from where I have already done so). No doubt there is intepretation, in the same way that you do, but perhaps i was goading a little with my extrapolation to an illegal referendum. Remember though, that the result would have been challenged if it had not been advisory. At which point we’d have probably all referred to it as the unlawful referendum. Back to your first point though about the nature of Brexit. I don’t understand your view. At the softer end of Brexit (CU, ECJ etc) you might as well remain, as its just a less good position. Still can’t sign up external trade deals, probably have to accept free movement and so on, don’t have a say in Europe, lose our benefits. Arguments which liter this thread. Leaving for the sake of leaving, and becoming a sudo-European state makes no sense to me. On your last point, which i think i understand. There are a set (whether you agree with them or not) of predictions of what happens in a range of Brexit scenarios. You’ll recall on the first attempt at May’s deal last year, Hammond even briefed Parliament that the UK would be slightly less well off than if we remained in Europe, but would be much better than the consequences of a no deal. Are you suggesting that we shouldn’t take notice of those? And to anyone that says that you only need to look at the current economic position to see that the predictions were wrong, well last time i looked we were still in Europe.
  22. JG220

    Brexit

    I didn’t say which side acted unlawfully. It is however true that only the Leave campaign (or elements of Leave - there were multiple organisations) have so far been found to have acted unlawfully. i think you’re probably right, there is moral question over the leaflets and so on from Remain. I actually think they not only objectionable but also unhelpful. Some of the rhetoric wasn’t helpful either, on both sides.
  23. JG220

    Brexit

    In that case you misunderstood. It was an advisory referendum, which both main parties decided they needed to respect. Respecting the decision to leave could be interpreted all the way from Brexit in name only all the way through to a hard, no deal exit. The protagonists in every option will say ‘well we’ve left’, thus fitting your defintion. Add in the issue of a land mass border which got ignored in the original debate and its unsurprising that no compromise in that spectrum can be found.
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