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tom kilner

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Everything posted by tom kilner

  1. The tests aren't foolproof, which is part of the trouble. I think 90% accuracy was given. The tests are needed to monitor the effects of the various efforts to restrict the spread of the virus, and to help predict upcoming demand for hospital treatment. If you can test enough people, you can then ease restrictions for some or all the population, but we're not really there yet with the quantity and resources available. Antibody tests (post-recovery) could be used to allow people back to work after quarantine, or work in high risk areas, but I don't think we're there yet with these either
  2. Concise. I'm seeing youths though in the city centre saying why should i shut my life down for an old persons disease. That, after all, was uk plan a, still followed by sweden and the Netherlands, but looking less popular as many of this year's hundreds of thousands of deaths all happen in a couple of months. With some extras thrown in. Back to logistics, but with p.r. thrown in. Imagine: Hospitals full, emergency morgues, the army collecting bodies, mass graves, temporary crematoria, no ceremonies, loads of low-paid untrained workers dealing with death and the dead, lacking proper equipment.. Where's hindsight when you need it most? Best wishes to everyone changing their routines to try to unpick this lethal knot.🤞
  3. My mate has turned his cafe into a grocery, and says there's no egg or veg shortage wholesale, but my local supermarket still has no eggs and few veg - like yours. The problem seems to be the supply chain; the big supermarkets can't adapt to a sudden change in demand - apart from pushing prices down when there's a surplus created at the farm gate - because they can't adapt their supply chain. It's a bit like those poor premier league footballers worrying about how they will pay less tax for the nhs if they have to take a pay cut. There are plenty of examples of self sacrifice and generosity though, just not always by the rich and powerful. Now, where's my local 5g mast? Give me daleks coming down the road to represent britishness, not footballers and supermarket buyers.👍
  4. I work opposite the hospital and the usual crowds outside of fat people smoking are gone. (No offence fatties and smokers!😉) The medical staff are calm before the storm🤞 I think there will be a lot of ptsd in a month. 🙁
  5. So add some extras in the following few weeks and the stats still look normal. Except the cause of death...
  6. So maybe their deaths figure of 4000 is the excess over expected?, still, that's 20,000 a day for 3 months, Well over a million, making the cv19 percentage tiny. Seems the Chinese state and media wanted low numbers, but our click- hungry media want large ones. I imagine we are somewhere in the middle.
  7. China had about 7 deaths per 1000 population, so with 1.2 billion people that's 8 million a year, about 20,000 a day - that's a lot of urns . Makes their cv19 toll look tiny, about one death in 20. In the UK we have 9 deaths per 1000, almost half a million deaths a year, over 1000 a day, so our current cv19 count is about one in three. I think we might be using different methods. If you die with cv19 in the UK, it's counted - I believe even if you fell down the stairs.
  8. I'm calling it tequila custard. I think it's an acquired taste, but then it's replacing soap and water and that tastes worse😝
  9. Here's my recipe: All these ingredients are still available, apart from the gin but that's just favouring really.
  10. hete in South East Wales we now have loo roll, butter and paracetamol available but rationed, eggs and vegetable oil are elusive, hand cleaner still not available. The high street is like high noon, but parking is a doddle and it looks like the wardens are self-isolating. So good and bad
  11. Wow. "The VentilatorChallengeUK consortium includes Airbus, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and Siemens." Swords into ploughshares.👍
  12. The idea is there will be a degree of immunity in the community (🙂) so that the disease no longer rages around. This means there's high quality care available, and we would expect treatments to have come along well in a few months, and v monitoring and early detection reducing severity. The "elderly and vulnerable" might not be allowed to mix freely (or go cruising 😍) for quite a long time, but the Chinese in Wuhan are allowed out now, and they have old people there too. Hey i know that stallholder guy - its gary from crewkerne. Does a great pangolin in bat sauce. I'll get the recipe😀
  13. Don't hold your breath😬 Oh no, do hold your breath😶
  14. There's no test yet for antibodies so it's impossible to be sure you've had it. Hopefully such a test will become available in the next few weeks. The Chinese are moving around a bit and have reopened restaurants but do a lot of taking people's temperature, and I believe you have to have an app that logs your location and other facts so any outbreak can be isolated and treated. New diseases emerge anywhere from time to time - the difference here isn't the Chinese it's cheap air travel delivering the infected all around the world.
  15. For her: the measuring wheel, For him: the "stop,go" sign. That engine rebuild can wait😉
  16. Yes, have you ever tried hitting somebody with a tape measure?☹
  17. I use a stick: the tape measure won't stay up at 2 metres☹
  18. Coronaviruses and similar viruses are known for their ability to jump between species - which is why bill gates talked about them as a prime suspect for the next epidemic back in 2014 (See prev - worth watching if you haven't seen it) Here is the link again: The chances of a global pandemic at some point have always been high, due to mass transit, and the chances of it being a coronavirus (e.g.cold)or orthomyxovirus (e.g.flu) very strong. Next time we might be ready. I think you won't be allowed to fly with a temperature in the near future, like you can't fly with knives after 911, or with guns after the 1970s hijacking spree.
  19. I was working outside today and there're usually several planes visible travelling in both directions - i think its Heathrow to America. Today there was one every now and then mostly going west. The sky was almost entirely blue, and we could hear birds calling half a mile off. I guess that data map is usually a lot more crowded.
  20. I'm thanking people who work in the grocer and the supermarket - they are coming in to work close to the minimum wage, low status, massive contact with the coughing public, day after day. Plenty of abuse and little thanks. Imagine how quickly it all goes to pot when people cant buy food. ☹ Or loo roll😂 They are also heroes. 👍
  21. The NYC covid19 advice is to have as few partners at possible. It's just whether that applies to her or you😉
  22. The car is standing on its rear bumper at night? Or the trailing arm mounting bolt has snapped off? I've got a spare🙂 Trailing arm might be full of rust too - I had to recycle mine, after grinding them off the rear hub body bolts🙁
  23. Funny how many historical power groups oppose birth control. I think they want to breed themselves into the majority.
  24. Surely if you wanted to wipe out the human race and were clever enough to develop a virus, you'd be aiming higher that 1% mortality, and go for high contagion. Many biologists and medical professionals have been saying for years that a pandemic of a new disease could cause global catastrophe. It has to happen, unless you don't believe in evolution. We're lucky corvid19 is comparatively mild. It could be a lot worse. Coronoviruses are well known for hanging around in different species, making them a prime candidate for the role. There's an element of human interference raising the probability, like scrapie, BSE leading to CJD in humans, originating in poor food chain control for industrial meat production. That could have been a lot worse. In fact many countries (for example usa France nz) still won't allow you to give blood if you spent more than a few months in the uk between 1980 and 1996. Not reassuring. 🤔 Let's not mention the Wuhan university study of bat corona virus - its a lot more likely it's greed and carelessness than brains and evil intent. That's just bad luck😶
  25. Aha Found this in the cupboard! 1981 - 39 year old cheese 2 years after my elite.
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