Is electric really the answer

[DarrylV8]

Hopes of the Britishvolt battery giga factory have collapsed, not sure if this will impact Lotus in midterm although doesn’t look good for British built EV cars.

[pete]

https://lightyear.one/lightyear-2. They have just received an order for 10000 cars from a leasing company. 

[ramjet]

I clicked on the link and got a 404 message saying 'this page does not exist'?

[Bibs]

https://lightyear.one/lightyear-2

 

[exeterjeep]

Apparently...

Financing a Model Y soars by 57 per cent in a day following drastic Tesla price drops....

https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/financing-a-model-y-soars-by-57-per-cent-in-a-day-following-drastic-tesla-price-drops/278058

There was also a mildly interesting TV program (did shout at the screen a couple of times) about the move to EV's on before the 5th gear program. One guy was going back to ICE, and another  looking to buy his first car with £8k, given various advice - but ended up getting a s/h petrol car, bought outright.

[ramjet]

$63,000 AUD for the Lightyear 2.

Nope. That's even if its gets to our shores.

[Bibs]

On 13/01/2023 at 15:15, exeterjeep said:

Tesla slashes price of Model 3 and Y in move that will damage used prices further

Lease costs have gone up as the min future values have tanked! Think it might be better/cheaper to buy a 2/3 year old ex-fleet one now that's taken it's financial hit from this. 

[jonwat]

Today's Times:

This month the Advanced Propulsion Centre, the government’s automotive electrification agency, significantly cut electric car forecasts for 2025 because “buyers are expected to stick with cheaper options for longer”.

While European and Asian manufacturers have been stepping up production of electric vehicles, they have been concentrating on more expensive models to make healthy profit margins on the cost of installing electrified systems. The battery pack is the costliest component of an electric car. The smaller the car, the larger the proportion the battery in its production cost.

[jonwat]

Ferrari files patent 🤣 

[C8RKH]

Spoke to a friend last night who has one of the Audi SUV EVs, etron. He said he got it last summer, new, a £91k car (I nearly fell over). 

He's furious as the value of it has dropped to £54k, seems a lot of EVs have tanked recently 

Maybe a buyer beware moment for anyone considering splashing out a 6 figure wedge on an EV SUV, whether Audi or Lotus!

[exeterjeep]

https://www.am-online.com/news/used-cars/2023/01/31/festive-rush-to-stock-ice-used-cars-saw-25-uplift-in-auction-sales

Used car retailers have been imposing electric vehicle (EV) stocking bans in a bid to avoid a slump in values as consumers cool on the idea of buying a pre-owned EVs.

 

 But EV depreciation accelerated as the month progressed, with many retailers had imposing “buying bans” to reduce further exposure to faltering stock

[Bibs]

That's a serious chunk of change to drop but any mainstream car at £90k will take a beating in the first year or two. The EV's even more so since Tesla's price drops. 

I wasn't aware until 2 days before collection but I was able to extend the lease on mine for 3 more months at the same price which I've done. If your mate's Oodi drops a few more quid I might have to give him a call

As an aside, my Kia retails at £39,495 when it was new, 2 year old ones with my mileage are £31k (hence the well priced lease) as I am considering purchasing the car once this 3 months is up. Trouble is, for another £10k-ish I can get a new Tesla! 

[C8RKH]

Yeah but with Kia you get good style design and superb reliability and build quality.

With Tesla you get the polar opposite.

[Bibs]

But it farts when you use the indicators!

[Techyd]

Don't get me wrong, that's an awful lot value to loose, but it surprises me that people are dropping huge sums of money on run-of-the-mill cars (albeit 90k ones) and expecting their used values to behave differently just because it' an EV?  Or have I misunderstood something here?  It would not have occurred to me to think they would be any different to a normal car in terms of depreciation.

[Bibs]

I think the usual depreciation is 25% first year then 15% per year after that. 

[mg4lotus]

That sounds like accountants figures.

[pete]

https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/batteries-charging-lithium-electric-cars-b2272024.html

[Kimbers]

So to answer a few points above.

Yes, EV Prices have tanked recently. Hugely so. 

This was Led by Tesla who saw £10,000 dropped off their residuals in one day. This was intentional and led by them having to drop their new prices by over £15,000 due to them being over priced against competitors and a change in Battery packs and chemical make up in said packs. Audi and BMW are seeing like minded drops in values which again seems to be worse in the "premium" market (Not sure why they are called premium, but I can only report whats happening).

Issues such as Self driving issues, spontaneous combustion during charging etc have really damaged Tesla branding and with the likes of the KIA EV6 GT having their own crazy acceleration modes (0-60 in less than 3 seconds) and priced lower than £50k, with longer range and shorter charge times, Tesla really have been up against it.

Back to prices. We are seeing a drop across all brands. Some, like KIA, are managing it much better but the likes of the Stellantis Group are seeing issues with the likes of the E-208 which costs mid £20's dropped £1500 overnight when the Tesla thing effected the whole market.

Talking to Insiders in the Manufacturers (Who if you ask outright will tell you theres nothing wrong and everything is marvelous), part of the issue is that over the last 3 years, with a much larger supply of EV's on the market, those that really wanted EV's now have them. Every dealer is telling me its much harder to move new and especially used EV's now. This has really seen a slow down in the last 2 months. 

Other things that have effected EV sales is several reports quite rightly talking about the negatives such as:

- 80% booster charge on a Motorway now costs Approx £42. With a winter range of circa 170-220 miles this means it's 25% more expensive to do circa 450 miles than a fossil fuel car (Tank range of a normal car/diesel/Petrol) if you aren't filling up at home.

- As per above, Winter ranges with heating lights, AC, etc on decreases your range substantially. Many are finding this now.

- Manufacturers do not normally cover batteries for "Normal degeneration". So my neighbour who has a Nissan Leaf and after 5 years is down to 82 miles to a full charge doesn't have a leg to stand on. Even worse, they now know that Booster charging and Tesla's Super Boost damages the batteries worse, increasing the rate of degeneration. Estimates are 25% over 3 years but may be as much as 50% over 5 years. replacement is not viable as per my neighbour, the car is now valued at £8000 and a new set of batteries is £8000...... if they can afford to wait the 18 month lead time.

- those that have Dual phase charging points fitted at home, whilst smug now, will soon start to feel less smug as the Govt is currently working on a blue paper on the phasing in of Tax, equivalent to the Tax on Fuel, 55%, Plus an increase from 5% to 20% of VAT. This to help replace the lost income off Petrol/Diesel. The only way they can do this is to stop people using their normal electricity points and trickle charging using a 3 din plug. If you have a 3 din plug for your PHEV or Electric car hold on to them and don't return with the car as these have now been phased out by manufacturers on the pretense of "possibly causing a fire". Its not mentioned but its thought this is really part of the EU and Governments around the world needing a new tax route to replace Fossil Fuels. Taxing of Dual Phase is the only way to separate home use Electricity to car charging cause it shows and can be monitored much easier. Conspiracy theory? Nope, sorry.

I can go on. The 2 hour car tail back for Charging points just before Christmas at just one Fuel station mirrored across the country or estimates by research that there will be only 1 charger for every 197 Electric cars by 2030 in Govt plans. on and on I could go, especially about crippling range anxiety caused by Electric cars. But I won't. Don't be a numpty and get an electric and think it can do the same as any other car.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/12/28/tesla-owners-forced-wait-three-hour-queues-christmas-car-charging/

https://www.energylivenews.com/2021/09/21/nearly-197-evs-could-rely-on-just-one-rapid-charger-by-2030-study-warns/

https://www.geotab.com/blog/range-anxiety/

[Barrykearley]

6 hours ago, Kimbers said:

those that have Dual phase charging points fitted at home, whilst smug now, will soon start to feel less smug as the Govt is currently working on a blue paper on the phasing in of Tax, equivalent to the Tax on Fuel, 55%, Plus an increase from 5% to 20% of VAT. This to help replace the lost income off Petrol/Diesel. The only way they can do this is to stop people using their normal electricity points and trickle charging using a 3 din plug

Hate to say it - but I predicted this in a post many years ago. It’s the reason why 3phase cut outs are being installed in new connections round our way even though the property is single phase. The revolution is coming….

[pete]

https://www.pistonheads.com/news/general-pistonheads/eu-exempts-small-carmakers-from-combustion-ban/46848.          Good news for the likes of caterham

[exeterjeep]

Hope UK allow the same.

[Bibs]

https://news.sky.com/story/drivers-leasing-new-electric-cars-being-overcharged-by-hundreds-of-pounds-each-month-claims-clean-transport-group-12821578

Looking at recent prices I'd say that's spot on. They've gone up 50% in 2 years in my casual searching. 

[Kimbers]

The Market on Electric is tanking big time right now. Worse than when I posted the above essay.

It worries me that Lotus think going 100% electric is the way to go. Maybe they are a little out of touch with real life living because they are in the Premium Brand Market, but they should really be thinking about things.

Currently, Plug In Hybrids are making a huge come back (Did they ever leave?). 2030 regulations do not effect PHEV's and many who have now "tried" electric are returning to Partial electric with PHEV's. Including my daughter who has just ordered a new Sportage PHEV and got rid of the E-pace, citing "usability, range anxiety and the cost to fill up".

For example: We just sold a Polestar at £5000 behind Trade, whilst we sell Sportage PHEV at £5000 ahead of trade.

I know many manufacturers are relooking at their Electric Policy, some looking at PHEV and others now really looking at hydrogen cells, and I really hope Lotus do too!

[C8RKH]

Great insights @Kimbers. Hydrogen was discounted by so many of the EV fan boys, and the work that Porsche and others are doing on green petrol is remarkable. A rather odd and closed mindset from those who were supposed to be future looking/progressive in their outlook.

I think we will see a lot of PHEV's on the road now, and in the future as they will sit in a sweet spot re price, range, performance and cost to run. Germany is kicking back hard now at the EU petrol/diesel new car ban, so the fun begins.

The new Sportage looks like a really good deal - great looks and kit and a good price too. I particularly like that launch metallic greeny colour they did.