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Is electric really the answer?


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Also, Tesco, VW and Pod Point have teamed up to roll out the provision of EV Charges at Tesco Supermarkets.

They will comprise of 7kw, 22 kw and 50 kw chargers. 

The 7kw ones will be FREE to use - and are paid for by selling advertising space on them.

This is the current roll-out plan https://pod-point.com/rollout/tesco-ev-charging

I think its pretty certain that other Supermarkets will do the same.

So therefore, even if you don't have a Charger at home and don't have a public charger along your street - you can charge when you're doing your shopping at the supermarket.

Indeed Lidl already have some 50kw ones - which are charged at 23p/kwh https://pod-point.com/rollout/lidl-ev-charging and there RAC conformed that the number of EV Chargers at Supermarkets has doubled over the last 2 years - Asda and Morrison's having the greatest number. https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/news/motoring-news/electric-vehicle-charge-points-at-supermarkets-double-in-two-years/

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1 hour ago, KAS-118 said:

You're right - currently the ban, i.e. the sale of new ICE Vehicles, is set to become effective in 2032 in the UK. 

@MPx - sorry you're right in that the ban is currently set at 2035, but apparently there is consultation to move it to 2032.

However - I'm sure, if there's a significant up-take of EV's and the provision of a charging network, it is more likely to be brought forwards rather than pushed back 

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8 hours ago, MPx said:

Lots to agree with here, but you keep stressing the "NO MORE OIL" point and I'm one of the doubters about that being relevant to the time scales being discussed.  Throughout my near 50 year driving life there have been periodic predictions about just a few more years left of oil. Pre-lockdown use of oil went inexorably up, but we didn't actually run out by any of the end of the world dates predicted.  What actually happens is when they're starting to run low the major producers look harder to find more reserves.  And also as the price has gone up, its become cost effective to extract oil from places where cost was once prohibitive.  So I totally agree that the actual amount of oil is finite and so it will eventually run out.  But I don't agree that it will run out in the next 15 years, or indeed in the next few generations...maybe not even in 150 years.

I also don't buy the 2035 mantra as a firm date of "what IS going to happen".  It might be done then.  If BEVs or similar reach a tipping point in adoption in the next 10 years it could even be brought forward, but no government commitment made today to any date in the far future will get served much more than lip service by any government of tomorrow.  If people haven't bought enough BEVs or, more likely, the Gov haven't actually gotten around to building the necessary charging infrastructure by then (and as Andy points out there's no strong track record of them doing such things to any published schedule - excepting of course all the Nightingale Hospitals that weren't needed) then it wont be practical and the date will be changed.    

Meantime I'll continue to enjoy our i3 and keep an open mind as to the "best" car to fulfill the roles that other cars have in our household.

Well I didn't actually specify a time-frame during which oil will run out. What I did say is that oil is a finite resource and so if we continue to use it up, then there is NO question that at some time it WILL run out. But I also said that if we simply dismiss this and keep using it up on the basis that it's "not our problem" and we'll leave it up to future generations to sort out, that would be an extremely selfish attitude would it not?

I understand the reluctance to lose the ICE that we have loved all our lives, but why is it so hard for so many to face the facts. If we keep using it, OIL WILL RUN OUT. This is a very simple FACT. Even if it's not for 150 years, it's still going to happen. Are we, as the consumers of said oil reserves not morally bound to be the ones to sort out what is after all, our mess. Or are you happy to simply pass the buck and let your kids (or their kids etc.) have to sort it out?

So Mike (MPx) what are you actually proposing? That we do indeed simply carry on regardless and let future generations have to deal with the mess we caused? Or do you have an alternative proposal as to how we deal with what will, at some time, most definitely come to pass?

I don't mean to be snarky, but it really is a puzzle to me just what is the alternative being proposed by those not accepting, or simply rejecting the inescapable fact that OIL WILL RUN OUT.

Everyone HAS to understand and accept what IS eventually going to happen as sure as the sun is going to rise. Then, we can all work together constructively to figure out the best solution to the problem and unless anyone has any better suggestions (backed by science, not conjecture or wishful thinking), then electric power IS the solution. So now we just have to work out the best way to supply that. None of that is opinion, just the facts of the matter.

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12 hours ago, KAS-118 said:

… the provision of EV Chargers in public areas is considerably more easier than HS2.

HS2 involved the compulsory purchase of peoples homes and business, it involved the disruption of some existing infrastructure and the destruction of some natural beauty spots. It would have gone through areas where first organisations such as English Heritage would have been required to do archaeological investigations. The engineering in some places would been mammoth and complex in nature - have you seen some of the engineering works involves in Cross Rail and he size of the machines involved?

So no, the provisions of EV Chargers is nothing like HS2. he Land is already 'public' or owned by companies (Petrol Service Stations) that are being required to provide EV's. The electrical networks is basically in place and comparatively simple to extend. Sure, they will be some work involved - but a better analogy would have been to the provisions of Cable TV and/or Fibre Optic Broadband.

I think the provision of charging points will be more of an issue than KAS obviously thinks, but it is not insurmountable and I do agree with his points above. I don't think HS2 is a good comparison, but the installation of Cable TV is a much better analogy. Let's consider that.

Cable TV is an entirely Inessential service. No-one needs more TV. But much of Britain has been dug up, just to lay cables to provide such a trivial benefit. However, the upgrade of our national grid to supply sufficient charging points IS essential. Not only that, it's just an upgrade to what is already there. Previously there was NO Cable TV cable, so that was starting entirely from scratch. What is needed now is just the expansion of capacity and reach of the national grid and there's already a pretty good starting point.

It was recently calculated that if all ICE vehicles in the US were instantly changed to EV, there would need to be a 30% increase in electricity production to cope with the extra demand. Not insignificant, but not insurmountable either and as I've said before, with an increase in local/home generation, much of that extra requirement will not be coming from the grid, which reduces by how much the grid would need to be expanded.

Look back over the last hundred + years. The Internal combustion engine was invented and largely dismissed as irrelevant because horses were seen as a far better alternative and anyway, where would anyone be able to find this new stuff called 'petrol'. I doubt anyone could have imagined what we have now (and have had for many, many years) with petrol available pretty much on every street corner. The work involved in developing such an infrastructure way surpasses what is required now just to make the national grids, 'a bit better'.

It has to be done. We can do it.

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I think it is not so much about "not accepting" that oil is going to run out. I do believe every sane person on the planet knows that it will run out (although come back in two million years or so I'll be a new oil resource :) ).

I think it is more about that for some people, myself included, the experience of an ICE car is not one that we so willingly want to give up. To put it another way, Steam Trains were phased out in 1968, some 52 years ago. They were at the their heyday some 70 years ago. And yet, people (usually older males with their younger males, though other sexes too) still hanker after steam!  They work lovingly on steam trains and railways, restoring them and keeping them going. People still love to travel on steam trains and pay large sums of money to do so in style. 

So, the first thing we need to do is to detach the "emotional" side of the discussion from the factual side of the discussion. Take out the emotion and you lose a lot of comments like "I don't see why people cannot understand x, y and z.

Again, Oil will run out. Eventually. At current forecast use we have at least 100 years left, as we reduce our dependency on it, this will stretch to 150 years and beyond. So, do we need an alternative to oil? Yes, of course we do. Does anyone dispute that? I think not. BUT, do we need to replace it today, right now, or the world will stop commuting, travelling and operating? No!  However, should we look to replace it in the near future, yes, because the current issues are actually less about how much oil do we have (as we humans are not really that good at long term strategic planning on a global scale) but more about how much harm is our use and reliance on it doing to the planet.

I think that the above is a fair summary and addition to the discussion.

What I can also ask though is why is it hard for some people to not understand that others do not want to change from what they have, to something different? (especially as in my own particular case a BEV is NOT attractive to me - I don't like the current designs to be honest - and of little real benefit due to my needs etc). Again, with the trains - there is no doubt in my mind at all that electric trains of today are far, far more superior, in almost every way, to the steam trains of old. But the irrational side of the argument for some means that steam will always be their favourite.

In the same vain. New cars are far, far superior to old cars in almost every way. And yet people will spend hundreds of thousands, millions of pounds on old cars that are inferior in speed, power, efficiency, handling, braking, noise etc. Illogicial. Totally. But that is humans for you.

So to move the conversation on at this stage. I think we need to stop, all of us, preaching about stuff.  Take the emotional side of the argument away, and focus on what is needed for electric, in particular BEV's to be successful and to be the future for the masses.  Many of us on here will still have an ICE vehicle or fleet, for another 10, 20, 30 or maybe even forty years. We'll be able to drive them (maybe not in cities), to fuel them, to run them etc. But in using them it will be with nostalgia and fondness.

This will not be an issue for the younger generations whom we already know are less inclined to be as car mad as us.

So, I think, but am not dictating that the conversation needs to move from the emotional to the rational. It needs to now focus on what needs to be delivered for electric to be the answer. And please, for my own sanity, that does not mean the incessant posting of links to cover every single bloody trial, technical innovation or announcement that supports ta fixed set point of view.  That is not a discussion. It is an attempt at brain washing.

 

I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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Hmmm... 🤔 it seems to me that there has been a lot of' misinformation' that has been said in this thread - people stating things as being 'facts' when in 'fact' they are baseless supposition put forward to justify someones biased and prejudiced opinion.

In this respect people might be interested in a book by Professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson called 'UnSpun: Finding Facts in a World of Disinformation'. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/85859/unspun-by-brooks-jackson-and-kathleen-hall-jamieson/

For those who are interested in trying to sort the 'wheat from the chaff' Page 146 is very informative - identifying that those who seek to mislead do not provide any information that can be checked independently, may refer to studies - but never who published them, or provide testimonials from named persons who can never be contacted. It goes on to discuss an example of where a Sellers site once referred to an  article in the New England Journal of Medicine to support their claim that a human growth hormone was 'Clinically Proven' to have all sorts of anti-aging properties; but if people had actually read the article it would have been found their claims were totally misleading. 

So, if people want to try and spot the 'Misinformation' in this thread then I would urge you to look at where someone has said something - but provided no actual support for that statement; or where there is a reference - you actually read that reference yourself. 

It is my experience that those who like to mislead show an irrational adverse reaction when they are confronted by people who do support what they say with evidence - probably  because their misinformation obviously can't be supported by hard facts or at least scientific research..

Just an observation. 

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@Bibs - as this thread is now quite long and contains both substantiated and unsubstantiated information - then those who are interested in subject - and you have to admit that although you may find it tiresome others, even if a small minority, do find it interesting hence the number of posts  -  there's a way of quickly identifying what should be preferred.

I'm also making the point that, just because someone does state an authority for their proposition, that it's worth actually looking at that authority yourself - and you shouldn't really just assume it says what someone tells you it says.

Personally, that's something that I always do myself indeed, I'm frequently required to do it.

Ultimately its up to the individual what they want to do - but as the book suggests - we live in a world of 'Fake News and Disinformation'.

 

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By the way - I should perhaps put things into some context - as it seems some people wish to portray that I came on this forum to advocate BEV's.

If you kindly look at my posting record - I actually originally came on here as I was investigating a purchase of an Evora 400 - which obviously is Petrol.

Indeed - I then started a thread about the Petrol Engine being saved, and I said many of the 'anti-BEV' arguments that are contained in this thread - as you can see here https://www.thelotusforums.com/forums/topic/90431-is-the-petrol-engine-saved/?do=findComment&comment=735237

However, it was NedaSay's comments that then made me look into it more - combined with my experience of actually travelling in BEV's and their popularity in Norway and Sweden.

Engineering Explained on YouTube also then did a Video where he put the question that if we didn't have any cars, and people were proposing a Petrol or a BEV what would be favoured - and identifying the fact that you can, in the vast majority of cases, charge at home plus the reduced maintenance. As he says, when you weigh it all up no one would have ever gone for Petrol. 

I actually have an open mind on the issue - and if there's actually persuasive evidence that there is great difficulty in providing EV Chargers at someones home, or in public areas - then I would really be interested to see it. Because if it turned out to be true I would gladly accept it.

However, the facts are that the Government has looked into it - and considers there isn't such an issue - and indeed there are companies in the process of installing them,.

 

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16 hours ago, KAS-118 said:

Also, Tesco, VW and Pod Point have teamed up to roll out the provision of EV Charges at Tesco Supermarkets.

They will comprise of 7kw, 22 kw and 50 kw chargers. 

The 7kw ones will be FREE to use - and are paid for by selling advertising space on them.

This is the current roll-out plan https://pod-point.com/rollout/tesco-ev-charging

I think its pretty certain that other Supermarkets will do the same.

So therefore, even if you don't have a Charger at home and don't have a public charger along your street - you can charge when you're doing your shopping at the supermarket.

Indeed Lidl already have some 50kw ones - which are charged at 23p/kwh https://pod-point.com/rollout/lidl-ev-charging and there RAC conformed that the number of EV Chargers at Supermarkets has doubled over the last 2 years - Asda and Morrison's having the greatest number. https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/news/motoring-news/electric-vehicle-charge-points-at-supermarkets-double-in-two-years/

What if you get your shopping delivered 😝

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You raise a good point @100th_Idiot. Home deliveries for shopping are up more than 30% and growing. More people who use it and see how easy it is the more people will use it!

Car use will decline further in towns. Could well be the problem fixes itself. Now that would be radical...

I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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12 hours ago, MPx said:

…  On current population expansion trends we will overpopulate this planet and simply run out of ways of feeding ourselves if we don't pollute ourselves to death, or go to war for religious or maybe water resource reasons in the meantime.  That could easily happen in the next 100 years, long before the oil runs out or global warming wreaks its havoc.

I can't disagree with you there. ☹️

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11 hours ago, MPx said:

My proposals, if I were to make them would be much more radical and entirely based around the "iceburg" and not "rearranging the deckchairs".  My views would only be acceptable to a tiny minority and I'd just get flamed so its not worth the time typing them up.  Needless to say the issue for me is all about Mankind, our belief in the sanctity of (human) life and its lengthening and expansion at any cost.  On current population expansion trends we will overpopulate this planet and simply run out of ways of feeding ourselves if we don't pollute ourselves to death, or go to war for religious or maybe water resource reasons in the meantime.  That could easily happen in the next 100 years, long before the oil runs out or global warming wreaks its havoc.

@MPx - to be honest I feel banning ICE wad a radical move.

I agree that something new may come along - but the ban is currently set for 2035, and because of Coronavirus and the reductions in traffic and pollution that saw - there are some calls to move this ban forwards - so we haven't got 100 or so years. We only have a max of 15 years to find this alternative, scale it up to mass production and put the infrastructure in to use it.

If the UK doesn't invest in this tech, and also hydrogen fuel cell - because I do see that that will be used for Power Plants, commercial and mass transport, the we risk becoming 2nd rate - a bit like what happened when the UK cancelled its Rocket Programme and the TSR-2 in the 1960's.

I disagree with your view that we can leave it all for subsequent generations to sort out - simply because if every generation did that then nothing would get done. 

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@MPx sorry to say we have reached "peak population" already. Battle lines are already being drawn, alliances are being made and preparations are afoot for the future economic wars that will not be about gold, oil, minerals etc. But will be about access to water, land for food, food and drugs (medicinal not recreational) etc. Bugger all to do with EV's though :)

 

I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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1 hour ago, KAS-118 said:

I disagree with your view that we can leave it all for subsequent generations to sort out - simply because if every generation did that then nothing would get done. 

The controversy in your statement revolves around "it all".  "It all" in your context is (I'm guessing) sorting out post ICE personal transport?  Or wider transport issues?  Or air quality and pollution?  Or electricity generation?  Or the charging infrastructure? Or however much of the introduction of EVs you're including.  But that's actually a very narrow focus for the words "it all".   In practice, every generation makes its contributions (did you not get the example of the Victorians?).  "My" generation has given us the internet amongst many many other things.  Most generations also do stuff which is pretty appalling when looked at with hindsight.  But subsequent generations building on the positives of what has come before generally make progress on what was previously achieved and seek to address its more dire consequences.  Stuff always gets done.

I'm not placing any bets on dates.  I've already agreed that the ICE ban may happen by 2035 or even earlier.  However that will occur if it captures the imagination of the public and they get behind the concepts making it demand lead. Nothing that any Government of 2020 decree will happen in 2035 will actually happen in 2035 because they said so.  I cant think of any long term Government infrastructure initiative that has been delivered on anything like the original schedule - so my bet, if I made one, would be for longer date rather than shorter, but I accept that "the general public" may move quicker...

Loving Lionel and Eleanor......missing Charlie and Sonny

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@MPx - I mean that if an issue has been identified by a current generation - then I think its for that generation to try and resolve, or reduce, the issue as much as it reasonably can - and not just leave it for the next generation.

The operative word being 'reasonably' - as clearly most things in life are a balancing act - and when you try to reduce one negative thing, it might have an adverse effect on something else. 

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Interesting PoV that is not mine but just putting it out there.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/now-what-electric-vehicles-coronavirus-colin-mckerracher-bloomberg/

Also, interesting view on who benefits the mostg currently re EV's (a clue: it's the wealthy!)  (  https://phys.org/news/2019-03-electric-vehicles-failure.html  )

Another question is, who benefits most from subsidies? A Manhattan Institute report on EVs highlights the fact that more than 50% of EV buyers in the United States lived in households with annual income of at least $100,000, and 20% had yearly incomes over $200,000. The conclusion is that subsides come at the expense of lower-income drivers of gasoline-powered cars who cannot really afford to buy any new vehicle, much less an electric one. It is they who end up paying for highway maintenance costs through fuel taxes.

 

I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

So that's another major objection knocked off - the 'upstream' generation of electricity has now gone completely fossil fuel-free in the UK. So no feelings of guilt when you plug your BEV in to top with 'dirty' electricity. To be replaced by smuggness no doubt 😇. Whilst the end of Covid-19 and the advent of winter may bring one or two power stations back on stream there is no doubting the trend. I for one would now seriously consider a BEV for the next family car. But will never sell the Esprit.... 🥰

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52973089 

 

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IIRC, when the media were in the Grid Control Centre, or whatever it's called these days, although the screen behind the 'Generators' PR person said 0% coal powered electricity was being produced, it also said 64% was being produced from GAS!

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Install the ESO app, or similar, from National Grid on your phone for regional view of energy mix and carbon emissions.

The Energy Watch GB app is also useful.

I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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13 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

I can highly recommend the Kona 👌

It seems to me this is symptomatic of the prevalent mindset, i.e. EVs as uninspiring utility vehicles. Whilst I am well aware of their benefits in that realm, my interest is firmly in the concept of stunning cars even more thrilling to drive than an ICE equivalent. The above just reminds me that so many are still missing the point of what an EV can be.

Let me be frank. I want an electric Evora. That to me would typify what EVs are all about.

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You can have one. Now. It's for sale and was on here @eUKenGB  :)

Let me be frank. I'd be delighted for you to have an Electric Evora. Just like you'd be delighted for me to have a petrol one I hope?

To clarify. I will have an EV at some point. I will need to have one. Not one of the current ones as they don't do anything for me. But I will probably still have an ICE Lotus alongside it. It might be an inferior car in the long run, the ICE one, but it will still give me emotional thrills to drive.

The EV will be smooth. Fast. Economical. Efficient etc.  The perfect wife. But my ICE will be the dirty bitch I spend the weekends with lol....

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I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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