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Brexit


Barrykearley

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Funnily enough one of the big Brexit proponents was the UK fishing industry. There was a guy on TV yesterday saying that the industry is now in crisis because he can’t get the workers he requires to process the fish after landing at the port in Scotland. This was previously done by migrant EU workers, but he can’t get British people to do the unpleasant work. Worth a watch:

https://www.channel4.com/news/brexit-fishing-industry-warns-labour-shortages-could-affect-food-supplies

 

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1 hour ago, Barrykearley said:

Ummm hang on - what about my neighbour whom is fully able to work - has been retrained by the ESA folks to be a sparky and simply cannot be arsed to get out of bed and do a days graft?

Once retrained you have 6 -8 weeks to find a job then all benefits stop!  You can only reapply for benefits once you have a job - so working benefits as you will no longer be legible for any sort of unemployed benefits.  Carrot and stick, sometimes means you need more stick!

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2 hours ago, C8RKH said:

We currently have around 1.6/1.7m unemployed people in the UK. Typically around 6% of these will be classed as "unemployable" due to health or other issues. So that comfortably leaves 1.5m unemployed people in the UK.

...

I like to think that as a positive Brexit voter I look for solutions, rather than just sitting on the side3 pointing out the issues and how shit it is and how it is Brexits fault. Implement the above, and Brexit would have been a huge success that got 1.5m Britains back in to self sustaining work. A practically near zero unemployment rate. A lower benefits bill. And a thriving economy. At that time, you can then open the borders however you want....

 

 

 

The total unemployed is 1.6m, but the long term unemployed (12+ months) is only 360,000 according to:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/march2021

The unemployment rate is quite stable, so most of the 1.6m therefore find another job within a year.  I agree there is some slack which could/should be picked up by UK unemployed, but I don't think the issue was EU membership.  It's UK government policy over a number of decades.  

What was stopping them from training people up before?  Then market forces would mean migrants were less likely to come to the UK because there was more competition for jobs.  Successive governments took the easier route of relying on foreign labour, then pulled the rug from under industry without proper planning.

Also, since freedom of movement was properly introduced (1992 Maastricht treaty), UK unemployment has been coming down (apart from the 2009 crash and Covid):

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate

What you outline sounds great, but I don't agree that Brexit was necessary to achieve that ambition.

As for pointing out the issues, sorry, I do remember the complete silence of Brexiters about the issues with the EU prior to 2016, I will now pipe down.. 😉😉. I'm just keen for the UK to prosper, and the simplest solution is to form a closer relationship with Europe.

 

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I never said "Brexit was necessary" Doug, did I?  What I did was to say we can just sit there throwing stones at brexit and holding our heads going woe is me, OR, we just understand what the issue is and then do what is best for our Country and her citizens to resolve the issue. A guess a "can do" as opposed to a "oh woe is me and the world" approach. I think the only thing that is "stopping them" is that they are just not close enough to "get it" - Labour or Tory!

As for not hearing issues with the EU prior to 2016 then honestly mate, I'll be blunt here, you must have been walking around with your hands in your ears screaming la la la la la I can't hear you....

So you heard nothing about the issues and furore over the intervention of the ECHR in various issues including the extradition of terrorists?  Just one instance of plenty of "noise" before 2016 bud. In fact, our discontent you could argue goes back to 1961 when we tried to join the EEC and to see our request vetoed twice by that [email protected] Charles de Gaulle who accused Britain of a "deep seated hostility" towards European construction!  Ironic giving our sacrifices only some 15 years earlier to "free" most of Europe and the fact that unlike France and many other countries were were actually funding reconstruction and paying reparations etc as agreed!  

During the 70's, the "noise" actually came strongest from the left of the Labour Party, led by Tony Benn and Michael Foot where indeed Foot's 1983 Labour manifesto promised withdrawal from the EEC.

Indeed, it has been said and well documented that the fundamental conflict in post-war British politics is not that between left and right, but in who believes that Britain's best future lies with Europe and those that don't. So plenty of noise even before I was born!

In 1984, it was so bad that Maggie needed to hold the EU to ransom and negotiate a permanent rebate on our contributions to stamp out a revolt that could have seen Brexit happen in the 80's. Then right at the start of the 90's we had the signing of the Maastricht Treaty that first really sounded the clanging of the alarm bells, as the EEC diverted fully from what was really just a trading block to a journey to full political union across ALL member states. Britain was not amused Doug! We opted out of the single currency and the social chapter and this is when we first started to hear the "noise" about how the EU and the political unification journey would undermine the British tradition of the sovereignty of parliament.  We made some progress under Blair in the late 90's, eventually signing up tot he "social chapter" but still refusing the single currency and several other key items.  In December 2011 as the EU struggled with the collapse of the Euro and pushed through a new treaty, again, Britain said a polite "no thanks" and demanded and received many concessions, but this success then fuelled further the Eurosceptics who pushed Cameron to the point where he had to promsie a referendum to survive. The rest is history as they say.

Yet again, in the end I just read another embittered posting from someone focusing on what they want to hear or believe, or what they perceive they have, or actually have lost, as opposed to just getting over it and moving on. Nearly all the remainers I speak to, the conversation is full of "I" - I have lost this. I can't now do that. I am now stopped from....  It's all about the "I" with the remainers a lot of the time, very seldom the "we". I believe that's why they just, by and large, cannot just move on but it is a symptom of democracy where votes can be won by small margins.

Look at us up in Scotland. The SNP have hardly been in power with a majority of their 15 odd years, YET, through doing a deal with the "Greens" who represent a fraction of the population they can just about forma majority government so then use that to say "it is the will of the Scottish people to be independent" when clearly, in absolute terms, it is very far from it!

So to finish, I am truly amazed at your comment re no noise BEFORE 2016. I truly am. I think it shows a blinkered approach, a lack of appreciation of politics and what has been going in the UK re the EU, for almost 60 years!

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Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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19 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

I never said "Brexit was necessary" Doug, did I?

It absolutely was - since that’s what the uk public voted for and last time I looked it up on Wikipedia we ain’t an annex of North Korea

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1 hour ago, Doug Ashley said:

The total unemployed is 1.6m, but the long term unemployed (12+ months) is only 360,000 according to:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/march2021

The uk government has been woeful at these numbers for years. It’s always been easier to bring in new workers than to force and retrain lazy folks. It’s interesting that JSA and UC are referred to - but ignored it seems ESA and DLA - both of which are frankly used as dumping grounds for those whom they consider too difficult to make work.

Oh and I do know there are some very worthy claimants of DLA - so please don’t quote the guy with only one leg etc. 
 

630000 people in the uk are eligible for a free car on DLA for example 🙄

1 hour ago, C8RKH said:

Once retrained you have 6 -8 weeks to find a job then all benefits stop!  You can only reapply for benefits once you have a job - so working benefits as you will no longer be legible for any sort of unemployed benefits.  Carrot and stick, sometimes means you need more stick!

Yeah but he currently gets over £2k a month in free money - whos the fool 

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55 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

So to finish, I am truly amazed at your comment re no noise BEFORE 2016. I truly am.

Sorry, I think you missed my sarcasm there;  I was trying to make the point that surely I'm welcome to point out issues with our current relationship with Europe (and therefore Brexit), after Brexiters have been doing it for decades.

Today I'm just trying to get to the bottom of why freedom of movement was so toxic, given the EU treaties themselves allowed countries to send EU nationals back home if they did not contribute.

The view that rejoiners/remainers don't consider the collective 'we' isn't at all what I've seen.  We want to work together with the continent for the good of everyone.  Everyone loses out by the fact we're diverging on standards etc. (see the CE mark fiasco and barriers to trade between GB/NI). I did mention what 'I've' lost as a result of freedom of movement ending, but it's just a way of expressing what everyone has lost.

35 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

It absolutely was - since that’s what the uk public voted for and last time I looked it up on Wikipedia we ain’t an annex of North Korea

It was necessary to leave the EU (but not with this kind of hard Brexit), and it's now been done, but it's not necessary to stick with it.  The question will be asked again at some point, & the country may change its mind.

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To be fair though @pete we have had tens of thousands arrive in inflatable boats during covid - even though uk residents haven’t been allowed to leave - oh and don’t forget the at least 12k of Afghans due to arrive. They’ve never had a say on brexit.

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1 hour ago, Doug Ashley said:

Sorry, I think you missed my sarcasm there

You are correct, I did. Sorry about that.

Freedom of movement was toxic largely because it was made a "media" issue by those who wished to stir up hatred/feelings amongst some people who quite frankly are so stupid and dumb they should have their right to vote removed!  I can think of people here complaining about how "local" jobs were being done by Polish and other nations workers and how it "wasn't right as they are our jobs" - the proof of their unfitness to vote is that no that many of "them" Polish and others have left, the lazy UK feckers aren't exactly rushing to do the back breaking work that the others where!  So Doug, I think most us with half a brain, whether Remain or Brexit, have seen through the bull shit to be honest so your point is moot, and I think you know it!

However, I would counter and say that there is probably a similar number of Remain voters who are quiet frankly just as stupid and dumb and should also have their voting rights removed!  They seem incapable of accepting that anything from the EU is "bad", or against the good of the UK etc.  So both sides had their bigots, their brain dead dumb fooks, etc i just rile at what I see is a self righteous arrogant view from many from the Remain camp that all Brexit voters are stupid and Brexit IS going to be a disaster because THEY are doing everything they can to talk down any benefit, to talk up any issues, etc. I'm still waiting for the first Headline to say that COVID was all down to Brexit. I'm sure it will come!

I really do think we need to just get over it and move on. We had a vote. We had a mandate. It's done. Ironically, I think it was the action of some of the militant Remainers, and that bloody stupid women whose name i can't even remember anymore, Gina something, ACTUALLY DROVE US to the deal we have now!  Instead of fighting against it, and causing the Government to constantly have to fight on two fronts, they could have got behind it and worked just as tirelessly to positively affect the outcome and ensure a better Brexit that I personally feel, was available to us...

It's like in Scotland. Independence lost. Yet all they can do is talk about, campaign for, whinge about and generally create division all in the name of Independence. Meanwhile, we have some of the highest teenage pregnancy rates in the western world. We have some of the highest drug deaths anywhere in the western world. Child poverty is going backwards and getting worse. Attainment levels are falling. Our NHS is chronically underperforming. Our Police, Fire and Local Authorities are collapsing (the SNP austerity actions make the Tories look like amateurs). But the single biggest, and divisive issue that is in the parliament every day. On the news every day. On every social media site every day. on the streets in campaigns etc. Yup. You guessed it. Independence. FFS, so whilst our people and society is decaying around us, dying more each day, we ignore all of that because we want what some crap Aussie actor with a painted blue face shouted in a film that was about as historically accurate as a fairy tale - FREEDOM!

I sometimes wish I could just buy a wee island and tell the rest of humanity to FRO!  I am sure many of you on here wish that too, so if there is enough interest I'll start a just giving page, a crowd funding site, and send you all a charity box to fill with cash. Just tell me when to start.... :)

 

 

 

Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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3 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

It's like in Scotland. Independence lost. Yet all they can do is talk about, campaign for, whinge about and generally create division all in the name of Independence. Meanwhile, we have some of the highest teenage pregnancy rates in the western world. We have some of the highest drug deaths anywhere in the western world. Child poverty is going backwards and getting worse. Attainment levels are falling. Our NHS is chronically underperforming.

Only yesterday in England on our bbc new channel - we had to listen to Queen Nicola saying how they are boosting the nhs capacity by 10% to help.  The effects of which will probably be cancelled out by the nice influx of Afghan heroin from the taliban.

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I wonder how well poppies grow in the highland climate. After all, since the clearances there's load of space to grow our own and make our own. The revenues could replace oil too!  We could market it as "Jockaban - 100% organic heroin powder". You could have Jockaban sprinkled on your fish supper, or put in to the batter to really give you that Mars a day feeling....

We could also have different varieties based on the poppy used - so a single use, premium powder would be a single seed Jockaban, something like Glensnortit...

I think I could be on to something here, shhh, don't tell the fuzz and I'll cut (sic) you in.....

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Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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On 26/08/2021 at 12:13, Doug Ashley said:

Meanwhile, I now do not have the automatic right to work or retire on the continent or in Ireland 🤦‍♂️

I agree there's a downside. I too am looking at buying a holiday home in Europe, Cyprus to be exact. However the new rules state that without applying for a Visa I can only stay there for 3 months and then I have to return back to the UK for 3 months before returning again.

However, there's a solution. You apply for the visa. Before there was an EU we had to apply for a Visa every time we flew to Ibiza where we used a Villa there. It took a bit of planning is all!

Yes, you don't have the automatic right to go but they don't refuse visa's unless you are a criminal or have restrictions on your travel. One thing COVID has taught everyone is that many countries rely on tourism and visitors to survive! 

 

On 26/08/2021 at 12:13, Doug Ashley said:

We now face a cliff edge of EU workers returning home, without a pipeline of replacements.  It seems there is no backlog of Brits looking for work which was taken over by EU workers, which might have been an argument for ending free movement but appears to be a myth.  We are now seeing the effects with supply chain issues in many industries.  Brexit is not the only factor, but it's a big one.

What we are seeing is, in large part @Doug Ashley the effects of COVID. Many people don't want to be away from their home countries right now because they may not be able to get back! However there are so many factors playing into this. As an ex-truck driver I know the trucking world. I can quote rates of pay, which is a biggie. Truckers invariably stay away from home for the week, returning home for weekends then off early again Monday. However only get paid for the "work hours" which is normally 60 hours a week, but paid Salary not hourly so they only earn the same as someone working 40 hours. It's hugely unhealthy with many drivers have health issues caused by the lifestyle. Lastly on this subject, Truckers have training and membership commitments like having a CPC This is made up of four tests; a theory test, a case study test, a driving ability test and a practical demonstration. Once passed you are qualified, however it must be kept undated, so every five years you need to undertake an additional 35 hours of Driver CPC training. Some people (like myself) just CBA to keep it up to date!

Look at some of the other area's that are struggling to employ staff. Restaurants. Mainly waiting and experienced Chef's. Manufacturing, again unskilled and semi skilled worker shortage, Hospitality the same, but especially where people don't want to work this area because of the likelyhood of not having a job during COVID outbreaks.

There is a theme here. Low paid, high hours (normally unsociable) area's and high staff turnover. As 2 of my friends said, who gave up their HGV license like I did "The issue isn't lack of workers, it's employers not recognising normal supply and demand pressures. Pay more have better conditions! Something the trucking world and all these industries hasn't had to do due to an oversupply of cheap EU workers! Look at HGV (Highly skilled job) rates of pay. According to The National Careers Service, starting salaries are between £18,000 and £22,000 per annum, and with experience this can rise to a possible £28,000. That's well below national average (£31,461).

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1 hour ago, Kimbers said:

According to The National Careers Service, starting salaries are between £18,000 and £22,000 per annum, and with experience this can rise to a possible £28,000. That's well below national average (£31,461).

Waitrose are paying up to £53k for an LGV driver. I would say that is a fair rate of pay for a very responsible, skilled job. You need to stay in good shape, stay alert and reactive for long periods and be relatively calm under pressure (delivery deadlines) and with the public (idiotic/inconsiderate car drivers for a start!)

Part of the problem is that we expect everything to be "cheap". So we consume lots. Maybe if we paid people a decent wage through the supply chain then we might not throw stuff away as quickly, we might repair rather than replace more, and not buy as much shit as we do!  So a double whammy - people get a decent wage and we consume less. Yes, prices will be higher but that is a fair side effect.

 

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Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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Plus lower the barrier to entry. Getting trained and qualified is expensive. Other skill areas get investment from companies that need the skills. So if the training and qualification costs £10K say then companies should offer the pay this in exchange for let;s say 2 year commitment to work for them. Leave before that and you pay it back pro-rata.

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