Brexit

[LF1]

Ok - driving related question, if we come out will the plans for speeding tickets and points earned on the continent to follow us back to the UK still be viable?

[CHANGES]

 

LF1

Think of it like a marriage where the wife takes a huge chunk of your income, she then gives you a small portion back back 12 months later with a shopping list of what you can spend it on, You can not spend it on anything but that.. How much she gives you will vary but not on the up side..  The rest she donates to her family to improve their quality of life.. Whilst doing this she also freely moves all her friends and extended family into your house and you have to support them , provide them with jobs and health care..  By the time you realise what is going on you are out voted on any changes you with to make to improve your situation..   The fact is you don't count , you are just a cash cow who is towing the line.. They/ she will only give you snippets to keep you in line until the point when you are erelevant, That is when she owns all your assets and dictates how your home is run..   Just before this happens someone suggests you can get a divorce before its to late..  All the people now benefiting from you wife's generosity are telling you that is a mistake because you will be on your own, you need them ,, The truth is they have not secured all your assets yet so if you divorced now they will loose out. further more it means you will have an income to recover from the depths you have sunk to... As a result you can build yourself into a formidable person who is independently wealthy without a blood sucking wife to support... You will be free to marry again but this time with hindsight..

The future will be yours to choose , or you can stay and become subservient..   In the later you can try and argue to improve your situation, but hell we all knows how that ends up.. Choose to leave and at least you have the power to make  decisions to improve the quality of your life, without the burden of supporting the leaches. 

Choose wisely..       

[LF1]

So people keep saying we "give all this, we get nothing back".

Can you give me the exact facts of what we pay in and get out please. Taking into account all the financial, manufacturing and other international businesses that set up in the UK as a gateway for their European operations, not been able to find it anywhere.

Interested to know exactly how we plan to replace our trade deals too, can't see that plan anywhere.

I like the fact I can sell my services to the EU without any issues or really thinking about it. Interested to know how that is going to change (if at all) for me as a small business owner?

[franjipane]

1 hour ago, LF1 said:

So people keep saying we "give all this, we get nothing back".

Can you give me the exact facts of what we pay in and get out please. Taking into account all the financial, manufacturing and other international businesses that set up in the UK as a gateway for their European operations, not been able to find it anywhere.

Interested to know exactly how we plan to replace our trade deals too, can't see that plan anywhere.

I like the fact I can sell my services to the EU without any issues or really thinking about it. Interested to know how that is going to change (if at all) for me as a small business owner?

Lots of facts and predictions here mate, sorry leavers, it seems pretty irrefutable that remain makes more sense at least in these areas and at this time... https://next.ft.com/content/0260242c-370b-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

One thing that hasn't been discussed much is if we leave now we won't be getting back in anytime soon and we hand more power to the current government who i don't trust to act in our interest.  On the other hand if we stay we can have another referendum at any time.  If you're on the fence then voting remain isn't voting remain forever, just for now.

[basalte]

Well I got my Elite 2.2 running yesterday -a coincidence BTW -so I feel entitled to add my tupennyworth. .I have just dodged the puddles and voted Remain. The following has avoided  statistics, all of which are suspect. I have concentrated on my thoughts on the motivations of those singing their siren songs to us  of Leave / Remain. There are definitely pros and cons but it helps to know the facts.

Don't worry ! We can still be friends whatever the result. I have friends who want out and others who want in -  It`s the British way.  

Firstly...I set out my stall . Do I believe in the principle of international cooperation ? Pollution,  wars and refugees all too obviously know no boundaries. Treating those like hot potatoes to be thrown at whoever doesn't wash anymore. Do I think the EU somehow wants to take GB over ? No I do not. I do not believe that the evidence supports that hypothesis. We are not even in the Euro.  I am aware that some here disagree but why would we be allowed a leave referendum in the first place if the EU had taken us over ? It is also ONLY the decision of our Sovereign Parliament  to take us out / leave us in  the EU whatever the result of this referendum. More food for thought....

BUT....

Like everyone I know , I don`t particularly like or rate  the EU as an institution. Corbyn echoed my thoughts in saying that he rates the EU 7.5 out of 10 and that he "doesn`t love the EU" and that he wants to change it. He voted against joining and has explained why his view has changed.  

Can I trust other voices ? Tony ("I`m not a War Criminal ") Blair,  Bob Geldof and Richard Branson for Remain.  Oh Christ. Arthur Scargill and the late Bob Crow  (for Brexit) Ah, maybe not.  James Dyson for Brexit-having moved his factory to Malaysia ! Oh, Right....

Anyway where do the real powers in our fair Land, the  billionaire press barons, stand?   The Sun "Wot Won It" , The Daily Mail, the Daily Telegraph, the Daily Express ? I admire the honesty of American citizen for tax purposes  and Currant-Bun -runner Rupert Murdoch who openly said that London won`t ignore him whereas Brussels does; Lord Rothermere ( "don`t ask about my offshore accounts") Richard (" Asian Babes") Desmond, the mysterious Barclay Twins with their Lovely castle - all  for Brexit. 

All so well qualified to wave the flag and our Queen in our face ! Forget that phone-hacking business  Fair to say that they won`t suffer whatever the result. One of the most English people ever, the compiler of the English Dictionary Dr. Samuel Johnson proclaimed that "Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel" . That is well worth remembering . Former Directors of MG Rover and BHS, again, trustworthy figures all  !

Oh talking of which Boris Johnson on TV in 2006 on Turkey wanting to join the EU :

"I believe that our generations have a historic chance not just to reunite the two halves of the Roman Empire but to build a bridge between the Islamic and Christian worlds . The crowning irony is that those who would keep the Turks out (of the EU) on the grounds that they are uneuropean would thereby disbar the city that for 1000 years was the heart of the Roman Empire and which preserved our European civilisation" .

Care to explain to us what made you suddenly change your mind,  Boris ?

Secondly..all politicians of whatever stripe have got the whole tone of the debate wrong. Its all lies damn lies and statistics whoever you listen to-many people (as is obvious from this thread) have no faith in politicians anyway. I look in vain for anything that addresses concerns of people in their `20`s who will have to live with the decision in the long term.

Thirdly the economic social and political arguments have all been thrown together and mixed up into a big pot. To take one obvious example : immigration puts pressure on local services but so do billions of pounds of Government cuts which the electorate voted for. Which is to blame? There are about 1023 swings and 984 roundabouts to weigh up. Chuck in the anger at our politicians generally and their words get lost in the wind.   

My attempt to grapple with the issues isn`t original or clever. I have genuinely attempted to read and listen to the experts .  Mainly in Economics. For me this is a reasonable approach  / has been the least worst option.  I thought Tony Hilton in the Evening Standard put it best when he said that we can indeed sink or swim alone in trade terms. But we have to jump off Beachy Head first. Whilst I automatically dislike it when politicians talk about the effect on ordinary working families I believe that leaving will have a bad effect in the short term without doubt on ordinary working families. In the long term ? A sheer gamble with China undercutting us on the world stage for a start.  

Enough from me. We all need to vote.         

[CHANGES]

 

1 hour ago, franjipane said:

Lots of facts and predictions here mate, sorry leavers, it seems pretty irrefutable that remain makes more sense at least in these areas and at this time... https://next.ft.com/content/0260242c-370b-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7

One thing that hasn't been discussed much is if we leave now we won't be getting back in anytime soon and we hand more power to the current government who i don't trust to act in our interest.  On the other hand if we stay we can have another referendum at any time.  If you're on the fence then voting remain isn't voting remain forever, just for now.

You don't honestly believe that do you..

Any educated person will agree there are the fores and against and it is all about balance..   If we vote get out of EU  and you don't like our present government you can vote it out in a couple of years, and then every 5 years after that ... If you stay in you can not vote the EU dictators out as they are not elected.. If you really think the EU is going to allow us another referendum you are very out of touch ... The only reason we got this one was because it was in DC's manifesto and slipped under their radar .. By the time we get the opportunity to get a vote that way again a European directive will overrule it... They won't leave it to chance a second time as the only reason we would vote again is because we got it wrong this time and stayed in..    The minimum time that could be forced for a re vote would be a generation.. 10 years pluss ... By which time there will be so many EU dependents here who will probably be entitled to the vote as interested parties under a new EU law that it will be pointless..Just in case you all missed it... THE POPULATION OF THE UK GREW BY 500,000 LAST YEAR... That is just the ones they knew about..    Where are they all going to live and work, go to school college etc. not to mention health care .. it is all overstretched as it is and i do not see the EU giving us any extra of our hard earned  money back to compensate us..  Its all about balance and as long as the balance is in favor of the EU then its wrong...  As far as trading with the EU is concerned if we leave not much will change .. it is all used as scare tactics..   The EU needs to trade with the UK more than we need to trade with them ... so a status quo will be reached quite quickly if we leave...  

[franjipane]

Dave is clearly voting leave then

Yes i do believe that there are pros and cons of both leave and remain, and yes i've had fairly decent education in this country.

But fyi the number of migrants coming to the uk last year wasn't 500,000, its much lower than that.  And if there's a problem with housing or school places i'd say those are issues our government needs to address.  As leaving the EU is fairly unlikely to significantly reduce the number of people entering the country, a large portion of which come from outside the EU.

[Vanya]

26 minutes ago, basalte said:

"I believe that our generations have a historic chance not just to reunite the two halves of the Roman Empire but to build a bridge between the Islamic and Christian worlds . The crowning irony is that those who would keep the Turks out (of the EU) on the grounds that they are uneuropean would thereby disbar the city that for 1000 years was the heart of the Roman Empire and which preserved our European civilisation" .

Care to explain to us what made you suddenly change your mind,  Boris ?

Turkey in 2006 was a far different country than what it is today, and one which had a bright future ahead of it regarding EU membership. Under Erdogan's strongman leadership the country has begun rolling back all the progress of the previous 100 years and is blatantly flirting with Islamism.

I believe what Boris, and many others want to say, when they mention "bridging the worlds" is that we wish "that other faith" to become as watered-down and "harmless" as modern Christianity, a bleating sheep of it's former self which does little else than rattle sabres but is stripped of any real power in comparison to what it has wielded historically. 

But I do agree that using Turkey as an excuse to leave is a bit far-fetched. I don't think they'll be joining any time soon. There's a greater chance of it joining Saudi and the UAE than Europe at this point. 

[basalte]

"A bleating sheep of it`s former self which does little else but rattle sabres ..." Well put. I`d prefer that Turkey to ISIS any day !

I suspect Boris`s change of heartfelt sentiments has something to do with Boris`s power grab for the Tory leadership. 

Last time I looked, the Sovereign Government of our country sets the tax rates for our country for a start and BoJo will make sure his rich mates and British Sovereign Territory tax havens are protected,

-all the while shouting "look over there at those nasty wasteful EU bureaucrats !"    

[USAndretti42]

19 hours ago, ChrisJ said:

As none of our wonderful politicians have said anything positive about the EU, I was hoping that someone who seems to be voting to remain could give us some reasons of their own - not a newspaper or a political party, but a real person.

Do they have to?  It's like having to justify not moving house or not getting divorced.  On the other hand, it was up to the Leave campaign to make a compelling case for leaving for this second referendum on our remaining in the EU (or EEC as it was last time).

[Bibs]

Voted 

[CHANGES]

2 hours ago, franjipane said:

But fyi the number of migrants coming to the uk last year wasn't 500,000, its much lower than that.  And if there's a problem with housing or school places i'd say those are issues our government needs to address.  As leaving the EU is fairly unlikely to significantly reduce the number of people entering the country, a large portion of which come from outside the EU.

With respect you and many others miss the point and use the excuse that EU migrants are only part of it..

 By John Bingham, Social Affairs Editor  (The Telegraph)

Mass immigration means Britain’s population has been growing twice as fast as the rest of Europe for the last decade – gaining as many people in that time as in the entire previous generation, official figures show.

The population of the UK passed the 64 million mark for the first time last year, experiencing by far the biggest annual growth in the EU, according to the Office for National Statistics.

It is now effectively the second most populous country in Europe after Germany, having overtaken France if the inhabitants of the French overseas departments and territories are excluded.

Although a mini baby boom has contributed to the surge in the British population, immigration accounts for at least 60 per cent of the growth in the last decade, the ONS estimated.

That does not include the knock-on effect of immigration on birth rates, with around a quarter of new babies in the UK last year being born to foreign mothers.

Overall the population of the UK grew by just over 400,000 to 64.1 million in the year to mid-2013, according to the official annual estimate, adding the equivalent of the population of Bristol in a single year.

That means that the population has grown by five million since 2001, the same amount it gained in the previous 37 years.

Yet immigration accounts for five times as much of the growth since the millennium as in the period before, the ONS added.

London, the most popular destination for new arrivals, grew by 108,100 in a year – the equivalent of the adding the population of Worthing or Eastbourne to the capital.

By contrast the populations of France and Italy grew by around 291,000 and Germany by 195,000 in the same period. Officially the UK is the third most populous country in the EU, narrowing the gap on France at 65.6 million.

But excluding overseas territories in South America, the Caribbean and Indian Ocean the population of metropolitan France stands at around 63.6 million.

Over the last decade Britain’s population has grown at a rate 0.7 per cent a year, just over twice the EU average of 0.34 per cent.

“Since 2001 there have been high levels of net inward migration, adding to the population at younger working ages,” the ONS explained.

“In part this was driven by the expansion of the European Union in 2004 and 2007.

“This period has also seen an increasing number of births, driven by both the immigration of women of childbearing age and rising fertility among UK-born women.”

Alp Mehmet, vice-chairman of the campaign group Migration Watch UK, said: “Population growth on this scale is clearly unsustainable and raises serious questions about the ability of public services and infrastructure to cope with such a rapidly growing population.

“The Government will have to build schools, GP surgeries, hospitals and homes as well as expand an already creaking infrastructure in order to cope with this demand at a time when there is very little money to spare.”

 

[Barrykearley]

I can't see the schools, hospitals or houses being built at the rate of folks coming in.

presently - politicians are saying immigration contributes more than it takes - that being the case then bloody well provide the facilities that are required.

this small island is full. House prices are rising - standards of living falling. Cultural identity being eroded to nothing.

im afraid - it is time we said enough is enough. That's not racist, xenophobic or anything of the like - it's just pure fact

[Advantage]

Here's a good visual aid to help decide your vote:

[franjipane]

@CHANGESYour quotes are pretty much bang on with the article i linked to from the FT.  Which goes on to say that even if EU immigrant numbers were cut to 0 (which is unlikely to happen if we want to trade on the single market) then immigrants from non-EU countries would still mean lots of people entering the country, at far higher levels than Cameron's pledge to bring the numbers down to the 10s of thousands.

It's a moot point anyway as evidence suggests (so the FT article says) that immigrant wages do not bring down wages here, even for the low paid.  Then there's the research that suggests EU immigrants contribute more to the economy than they take out, more so than immigrants from outside the EU https://fullfact.org/immigration/do-eu-immigrants-contribute-134-every-1-they-receive/ even if politicians claim otherwise!

So if immigrants from the EU contribute more than they take out, (as do non-EU immigrants albeit only a tiny bit more) then what is the problem! The government should have more money to spend!  Could it possibly be spin from the media?  Other motives from politicians?

Plus we already have concessions regarding EU immigration, with potentially more opt-outs of EU quotas to come but who knows if that will happen - https://next.ft.com/content/3282746e-11d8-11e6-839f-2922947098f0 

"The UK carveout was possible because of opt-outs already built into the EU’s treaties for Britain and Ireland that allow both countries to pick and choose when they participate in EU rules on “border checks, asylum and immigration”. Because the new commission plan is legally an enhancement to the existing Dublin rules, the opt-outs are still valid. Mr Timmermans pointed out that Denmark also benefited from special arrangements under the treaties."

Admittedly, i've not read any further on this so could be misunderstanding the article.

I'd say if we can't handle a population growth rate of 0.7 to 0.5% per year (last years figure), including immigrants, then it seems like the Government should be investing more in hospitals, houses, education etc. rather than cutting off it's nose to spite it's face.

[Barrykearley]

^ tony Blair - never once told a lie 

[Barrykearley]

France is a huge land mass and can build to accommodate folks.

we simply can't and are not allowed to build....... There's stumbling block number 1

[franjipane]

Doesn't seem to stop developers building un-affordable housing though does it.

[Bibs]

The 5 bed new builds around the corner from us aren't far off £1m! 

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/new-homes-for-sale/property-59796710.html/svr/3103;jsessionid=52BE2D2D441C1C599664F1DD459687F7

 

 

[Barrykearley]

Ahh that's cheap - I'm sure they will be snapped up by Eurocrats earning more than the PM

[eclat22]

Hi, I'm going out to vote later, thought I had decided how I was voting then is saw a few pages ago that if we leave all holidays will be in Dunstable, well I'm buggered if I'm having you lot round my place for your holidays, it's busy enough to with all the polish, Italians etc without you lot coming here as well.

joking aside, OUT!   OUT!     OUT!

[USAndretti42]

5 hours ago, franjipane said:

But fyi the number of migrants coming to the uk last year wasn't 500,000, its much lower than that.

I thinking you are a bit like the Leave campaign in that you are confusing net and gross figures, Steve.  Net migration was around 330,000 as a load of people left.  There were 630,000 immigrants of which 83,000 were British citizens with the rest pretty evenly balanced between EU and non-EU citizens. (Numbers courtesy of Migration Watch)

[franjipane]

Ta for clearing that up Trevor, yes it's net migration i was looking at from the linked FT article.

[Barrykearley]

http://www.nhbc.co.uk/cms/publish/consumer/NewsandComment/Stats/2015_Annual_Stats.pdf

156000 new homes built........ Doesn't really sound anywhere near enough then

[ChrisJ]

We must have voted OUT as the start of the acts of God promised by CMD have already started - please note I don't live on a riverbank