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Corona Virus

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@PaulCP

New Cases - discussing with Mrs P last night, as a shielder she is obsessed with the numbers. New cases are irrelevant - it is a function of the number of tests being done. The best measure is those admitted to hospital as quite frankly when people get ill to the point of going to hospital then that "degree of illness" will be the same now as it was before. Therefore the number of people going to hospital will be a consistent measure.

This one could go into the "What made you unhappy thread". People returning early from France so that they don;t have to self isolate. FFS whether you return today or tomorrow does not affect the risk you represent to others. Do the honerable thing and self isolate anyway. You took the risk, knowingly, of going to France and this was always on the cards. Stop being a selfish inconsiderate bunch of XXXXs. The government should bring these measures in "with immediate effect". Adele, this applies to you too if you happen to be on a Lotus discussion forum, set an example.

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A Lotus is for driving, pork is for breakfast.

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Colin - this is the site with the figures you are looking for: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare - you can drill down Nations for no of tests, Local authorities for no of +ve tests and NHS regions for healthcare.

 

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3 hours ago, pete said:

In other countries where the  infection rate has risen considerably deaths have not followed suit. Is the virus weakening or are we better able to treat it

Chris there is nothing new under the sun. Our immune system is the greatest thing. Ive not been ill since Feb and am worried my immune system isnt being strengthen as it should. 

So much so Ive started licking my keys every morning to help me. B-)

Anyway more people waking up the BS in Aus

buddsy

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"Belief is the enemy of knowing" - Crrow777

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Not going to comment on whether the global response to covid 19 is an overreaction or not, but it appears to be quite contagious but not that severe in terms of fatality. Kind of the opposite to Ebola. I just hope that the one thing we as a species learns from this is how better to prepare and protect ourselves from a pandemic that is both highly contagious and has a much higher fatality rate. We've got all kinds of technology gizmos, SpaceX is ferrying people into space, the infrastructure of this information age evolves apace etc. but I find it kind of strange (and worrying) that we don't have the technology to develop a viable vaccine quickly. We like to think of ourselves as scientifically advanced, but in all honesty we're really lacking when it comes to medical advances. It will have taken about a year to come up with a vaccine for a (relatively) mild virus. If a contagious virus pops up that has even a 20% mortality rate, society will collapse faster than its ability to develop a response.

Sure, it happened in the C14th with 1/3-1/2 of Europe's population dying. They had no complex interwoven supply chain that underpinned their society to worry about though. It heralded the end of feudalism which was one small +ve but apart from that society at the time was quite resilient in its ability to keep on surviving as it had done previously. We're much more a house of cards now. Maybe this pandemic will be a wake up call as to how ill prepared we are, and how conceited we are to assume that things will always chug along as they have done for the last few hundred years.

Sure, doubt the government and its response to covid, blame the media for all the fear mongering, but for goodness sake can we please still both trust and invest in science and medicine to ensure we are better prepared for the worse? 

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But were these predictions based on the projected result of no remedial action being taken? Most of the reporting of Ferguson's models was from the media, which I don't trust to provide an objective scientific appraisal. Having said that I've not seen, and more worryingly I don't know of anywhere that has provided a measured review of his models. Regardless, some plan needs to be in place and more investment in disease control needs to be made.

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Was the fact that the actual number of deaths were much lower due to a quick response to the risk, or that the predictions themselves were overinflated? That's the crux of the problem. This is where it comes down to trust in science. Balancing the risk of deaths with the risk to the economy is never going to be perceived as being 'correct', as it's unprovable after the fact. In the entitled society we live in, riddled with populism, who'd be a scientist to make predictions eh? 

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