Coronavirus

[electro_boy]

@Buddsy  The point of social distancing and enhanced hygiene etc .... is not so that you will never catch it ever.  It is to try and slow down the infection rate so the heath services doesn't collapse and our infrastructure are not bought down.  The NHS is struggling incredibly hard to treat everyone that needs help whether it's COVID or a different condition.  These steps help to reduce the probability but do not reduce it to zero.  COVID won't go away it's here to stay but if we can slow it down we have a chance to give people better quality of care.  We also have a chance to vaccinate enough people such that when they eventually do come into contact with the virus the symptoms are reduced greatly if not totally having less impact on peoples lives.

There is lots of evidence to show lockdowns, track and trace and the enhanced hygiene rules are all working to reduce the number and speed that infections arise.  Take the UK as an example; after the first lockdown there was a plateau of COVID related deaths.  The lockdown was strict, people in general stuck to the rules better and it was effective and bought the rates down.  We then decided to reduce the restrictions, open up socialising in groups and look what happened the rates went up.  We then decided to further relax the rules over xmas and the rates went up further still.  There is a direct correlation between limiting movement and using extra hygiene measures to reduce the number of infections.  I'm not saying the way the UK has implemented these measure was in an ideal manner and that we couldn't have done better but these measures do work.

I agree the statistic keeping is not accurate as your post above points out, you could have a positive test and die of a totally unrelated issue and still be classed as a "COVID death" which doesn't make too much sense in my book.  But that discrepancy doesn't account for the hospitals that are overcrowded with COVID patients suffering and in pain.  The NHS staff that are valiantly working through this situation absolutely exhausted.  The number of friends and family that have been effected as they have lost loved ones.  *** edit: Just seen the news today that we passed the 100,162 milestone using the statistic the government use but even if you a difference statistic, number of deaths above the usual amount its 99,211; which is only 1% difference from the government statistic.  So while there maybe discrepancies in the static keeping in general these are very low.

Also I'm not sure who it was that does not want to get the vaccine, was it @Buddsy or @Barrykearley, can you explain why you don't want the vaccine if you were offered it please?  I'm sorry if you have mentioned it already,  its long thread and I may have missed it.

 

Edited January 27 by electro_boy

[Dan E]

I do not have any problem with people not having the vaccination, we live in a free country, it is your choice. However now knowing 11 people who have died of this ( and yes actually of COVID) through friends and extended family I also don’t want you in the same pub as me when I have had the vaccine. 

so that in my mind is the choice and obviously if you get it you refuse all treatment. The one thing that really done me was watching the news with nurses saying they had to walk through COVID deniers to get to work. 

 

 

 

[Barrykearley]

7 hours ago, Buddsy said:

The same but with less suicide and cancer fatalities?

 

buddsy

This is a very real issue - first time I’ve heard it admitted publicly was yesterday by the political elite. There have been thousands and thousands denied scans and treatment due to covid.

sadly these folks have been utterly forgotten by most on this thread and simply sentenced to death.

 

6 hours ago, electro_boy said:

There is lots of evidence to show lockdowns, track and trace and the enhanced hygiene rules are all working to reduce the number and speed that infections arise

 

There was lots of evidence to support WMD and invading the Middle East. Plenty of evidence produced to lock up folks wrongly convicted whom are subsequently cleared.

What I do see on this thread is some questioning the validity in free speech - these folks are challenged and shouted down. The government and its actions has engineered this situation. The last time a government did that with folks blindly following them the leader had a very strange moustache.

[pete]

 Sorry but your analogies are ridiculous. If free speech is allowing deniers into our hospitals to harass our nurses then no I don't want it.

[mg4lotus]

I know you won't like this but some of you BBC deniers should try listening to the BBC radio 4 programme More or less. It gives the evidenced facts and truth behind reported statistics.

I may be pissing in the wind as some people will only believe what they want to believe.

[electro_boy]

So your point is; not everything the government tells us is true? Sure I agree that’s true. 
 

But .... WMD was done by a coalition of a few countries not the entire world.  The evidence wasn’t really visible unless you were a non government agency with top security clearance.  And when eventually questioned by the everyday person it soon fell apart. There were also motivations for those governments to go to war claiming WMD.  
 

COVID is world wide, literally every country is aligned with “the lie”.  The evidence is easily available to people. You can see it for your self in hospitals and from peoples accounts. And finally I’m not sure what the motivation would be to lie about COVID? How is this benefitting the government?

Also bringing Goodwin into this... really?  Again a very different situation to what is happening now.

Regarding much reduced health services for non COVID patients, that has been well documented from day one. Many health professionals saw it coming and raised concerns. Again another reason why the COVID measures are important. Hospitals are taken over by COVID patients, it’s very hard to keep the hospital 100% clean so often it’s better to delay treatment for some conditions rather than risk catching COVID in the hospital.

In the summer when we managed to reduce infections hospitals were able to start normal procedures again. But since the recent increase in inflection those treatments have had to be put on hold again. 

Staying home does not only help save lives through reduced Covid but it also helps save lives though normal nhs operations allowed to carry on. 
 

The effect on people’s mental heath has also been noted from reasonably early on in lockdown 1. The government used extra funds to tackle this problem. Sure a lot more can be done to help these people. But issue has been acknowledged from early on. 

[PaulCP]

3 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

There have been thousands and thousands denied scans and treatment due to covid.

What I do see on this thread is some questioning the validity in free speech - these folks are challenged and shouted down. The government and its actions has engineered this situation.

Denied scans and treatment is all that is reported though (ie the bad news). I don’t recall, as part of any balanced media reporting, any reports about those whose scan and treatment haven’t been affected.

For myself, I have continued to have quarterly CT and MRI scans and any additional necessary treatment as per the 3 years before the pandemic started. Ipswich hospital contracted out all of their cancer care to the local Nuffield, including treatment where needed, no doubt the cost being taken by the local hospital trust.
 

I’m not sure that anyone has been “shouted down” as you suggest. Surely free speech works both ways and being challenged and being open to challenge works both ways.

The govt’s actions haven’t always been correct but they have been working in the dark for most of the time with many unknowns. What has exasperated and engineered the situation has been a large part of the media reporting, latching on to only the bad news and playing it to death. 100,000 deaths is a sorry state but 20,000 deaths was also a sorry state.

I just can’t help but feel that the 100k figure was one that part of the media were just rubbing their hands waiting for. Of course just my view as part of free speech, I’m sure many will disagree.
 

[ramjet]

I live in Australia as you know. I have had to endure lockdowns where we could not travel more than 5kms from home. For weeks.

 Our government has now said we don’t have to wear a mask in the office, PROVIDED we can maintain 1.5 metres from everyone else. Everyone has forgotten that bit of the rule and no-one but silly old me wears one all day.

 Why? I have two children that are nurses. One tests 80~90 people everyday and has to put up with some real idiots that think they are entitled. The other has to deal with people that get it and get admitted to hospital. Thankfully he hasn’t seen many as our government locked us down. His partner is a nurse as well. 

 So why do I wear a mask? Because if it adds the slightest bit of assistance to me not getting it and passing it onto one of them, it is worth it.

 Now where is the line for the vaccination?

Oh, we can expect to see this activity of case fluctuations, lockdowns, preventative measures for at least the next 2 years in my opinion.

 Why? The first strain has taken a year to nearly control and now 2 more are in the wild.

@Buddsy (I think it was) asked how some people got it when they followed all the rules? Because someone they came into contact with didn’t, or this damn thing spreads in new ways that have not been discovered. We have had tennis players (yeah, the ones for the Aus Open) getting it after over a week in hotel lockdown.

We are chasing this thing. We are not in front of it.

 I doubt we will get in front of it. And as it mutates, it will get stronger, not weaker.

[Bibs]

3 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

This is a very real issue - first time I’ve heard it admitted publicly was yesterday by the political elite.

That's been discussed on the news since last March! 

[Barrykearley]

Stop it @Buddsy.... you’ll be called a swivel eyed tin foil hat wearing loon.

sadly people die and they do everyday believe it or not. Many will before their time undoubtedly due to Covid. It’s about time a proper route cause was carried out.

3 hours ago, pete said:

 Sorry but your analogies are ridiculous. If free speech is allowing deniers into our hospitals to harass our nurses then no I don't want it.

That’s not freedom of speech - that’s being a twat

[pete]

Couldn't have put it better myself

1 minute ago, Barrykearley said:

Stop it @Buddsy.... you’ll be called a swivel eyed tin foil hat wearing loon.

sadly people die and they do everyday believe it or not. Many will before their time undoubtedly due to Covid. It’s about time a proper route cause was carried out.

That’s not freedom of speech - that’s being a twat

 

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

If that graph is correct, then it looks like from week 4 onwards that we are going to see a far higher weekly death toll than either of those previous spike years, which seemed to tail off relatively quickly. Perhaps you can post up the latest version in a couple of weeks? That would be interesting.

[SFO]

1 hour ago, PaulCP said:

What has exasperated and engineered the situation has been a large part of the media reporting, latching on to only the bad news and playing it to death. 100,000 deaths is a sorry state but 20,000 deaths was also a sorry state.

I just can’t help but feel that the 100k figure was one that part of the media were just rubbing their hands waiting for.
 

The media has only focused on the bad news, nothing else. As that generates most revenue. Unsurprising, since no one buys newspapers anymore. There is no such thing as a free lunch. 

1 hour ago, ramjet said:

And as it mutates, it will get stronger, not weaker.

Not so far .. more transmissible apparently, but not more deadly 

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, ramjet said:

And as it mutates, it will get stronger, not weaker.

That isn’t how virology works. A success virus isn’t stronger - it burns out faster if it is. It should get less fatal and more transmissible 

Edited January 27 by Barrykearley

[mg4lotus]

Nothing in life is certain, so the saying goes. Generally you are correct but this new strain is reported as being more transmissible and also has a higher morbidity rate. Even though our medical staff are better at treating it and we are facing tougher lockdowns.

@Buddsy Previous years figures we weren't having lockdowns or social distancing.

If you look at the official graphs there is a strong correlation that shows social distancing and lockdown measures do work. You need to remember there is a lag between infections and hospital admissions and deaths. It's not rocket science.

[SFO]

6 minutes ago, mg4lotus said:

also has a higher morbidity rate.

not true.

The statistic (13 in a 1000, instead of 10 in a 1000) spouted (and heavily caveated, so as to make it basically worthless) by Vallance last Friday has been comprehensively shot down by Scientists, including deputy CMO. 

 

[mg4lotus]

Heavily caveated yes, we need to careful about the figures are interpreted. Do you have a link to official figures that disprove those already reported?

[SFO]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55779171

[mg4lotus]

Extracted from that article -

The announcement followed a briefing by scientists on the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) which concluded there was a "realistic possibility" that the variant was associated with an increased risk of death.

But one of the briefing's co-authors, Prof Graham Medley, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The question about whether it is more dangerous in terms of mortality I think is still open."

"In terms of making the situation worse it is not a game changer. It is a very bad thing that is slightly worse," added Prof Medley, who is a professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

 

On todays Downing Street briefing at 17:32 Sir Patrick Vallance was asked this very question. He confirmed that those numbers were the ones used and that there are no new numbers yet.

Yes, this is early doors and there isn't a huge dataset to be totally confident. I would be absolutely happy for the new variant to be found less deadly.

Numbers are numbers - 10, 13 or 14, 30% or 40%, 1.3% or 1.4% You can look at these numbers and make your own mind up. But, with terms like "spouted", "worthless" and "shot down" it appears like you might have already done that.

[electro_boy]

@Buddsy yes the graph is most likely to be true, I don't believe you have fabricated it.  But what do you think it says?  I don't think it says what you think it does?!

I suspect you are trying to show that death rates are similar to previous years and there is no pandemic?  While your interpretation that death rates in 2020 are similar to the years 1996 and 1999 may be correct for those weeks shown on the graph but it does not show that the pandemic is false.

You need to take into account trends and use more recent years and use an average of a few previous years to give a fair representation.  eg the graph at the bottom shows since 2000 in general deaths have dropped ~25% I don't have the figure for 1996 and 1999 but I suspect total deaths where higher.  You have also not taken into account we have spent majority of past 12 month in lockdown or some sort of restricted movement situation.  Which in general has reduced a lot of potential for deaths by many means not just infections.  And you have not taken into that the inflection numbers and deaths lag behind a few weeks so are likely to show more deaths if the graph would continue a few more weeks. 

Also counting death rates is only half the story, there are so many people ill in hospital and its the amazing medical staff and new medical equipment and our increased knowledge about the virus that are keeping them alive.

If you normalised your graph according to time, effort and cost spent treating people, I'm sure the stats for this year would far surpass any other.  (Thats a hypothetical suggestion as I wouldn't have the foggiest on how you would quantify that)

 

[electro_boy]

@Barrykearleycan you explain this comment to me please?

Quote

sadly people die and they do everyday believe it or not. Many will before their time undoubtedly due to Covid. It’s about time a proper route cause was carried out.

I don't understand what you are trying to say.   As far as I understand it, the root cause is known; it's Coronavirus.  People have shown to have similar symptoms which have been traced back to be caused by Coronavirus.  The tests show people had positive tests for coronavirus.   Therefor its reasonable to suspect Coronavirus killed them.

I think I'm miss-understanding you? Can you clarify please?

[Barrykearley]

Simple. CV19 isn’t naturally occurring. There’s been many whom have come out and said it. 
 

I personally know an A&E consultant whom specialises in virology - he’s absolutely of that opinion as well. 

We had a small outbreak of Novichok in Salisbury and that was investigated pretty conclusively. PRC simply ain’t co-operating with investigators - I wonder why 🤔.
 

I’ll get my tinfoil hat back off @Buddsy👍

[mg4lotus]

Trolling🤔

[andydclements]

@Barrykearley you don't get an "outbreak" of a nerve agent, it can be an accidental release, but I think very few other than those in the Kremlin would suggest anything other than release of Novichok was a targeted attack.

 

The determination of whether Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is probably going to be hotly debated for a long time. If somebody comes out and admits they were working on creating it, then that may settle the argument, but other than that there's probably going to be "evidence" to support whichever view anybody cares to want to find evidence for.  PRC have been of a secretive mindset for years/ decades so surely if they suddenly changed that approach it would be more suspicious?

 

I will just say this, years after SARS first hit there's been nothing to indicate strongly that it was man-made, ditto Ebola. Have a look at what WHO say about disease evolving https://www.who.int/news/item/01-09-2015-how-the-4-biggest-outbreaks-since-the-start-of-this-century-shattered-some-long-standing-myths  So, why would a new member of the same family of viruses have to be man-made when another was seemingly naturally occurring?

.......All experts agree: changes in the way humanity inhabits the planet make the emergence of more new diseases inevitable. Constant mutation and adaptation are the survival mechanisms of the microbial world.....

[Bibs]

2 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

CV19 isn’t naturally occurring

To what end was it created? Not sure prematurely killing loads of old folk helps anyone really?