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Barrykearley

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Just watched the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures - this year given by Professor Jonathan Van Tam. He had a host of other top scientists on and explained about viruses, the mathematical modelling and vaccinations. It was very interesting.

The demonstration by the maths professor from Cambridge about the modelling and human behaviour was very interesting.

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7 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Balance comes on both sides of the fence. 

I am not downplaying the “dangers” merely trying to make people think outside of the media scare storm and actually question the data rather than simply blindly nod and agree. 

 

And as has been demonstrated to you several times the data is panning out as expected and the risks are significant and real.

What was 'predicted' in the media has largely come true in terms of cases, spread, hospitalisations, pressure on the NHS and deaths. Hence it was not a scare storm, it was actually preparing the general public for the reality. 

By all means 'question' the data, but also accept and understand the data. 

 

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2 minutes ago, gregs24 said:

By all means 'question' the data, but also accept and understand the data.

Yes - but the data is bound by the assumptions made - and that’s where the nuances  “OF” and “WITH” are very useful in the manipulation of such datasets. 
 

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Yeah - to go into a shop - you need to wear a mask - to sit at a table in a pub and get lashed - no mask required 👍

many pubs now shutting at 9pm 😳 and also having limited menus.

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1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

What was 'predicted' in the media has largely come true in terms of cases, spread, hospitalisations, pressure on the NHS and deaths. Hence it was not a scare storm, it was actually preparing the general public for the reality. 

 

Really? I seem to remember a million cases a day, 10,000 hospital admissions a day, and around 5,000 deaths a day .. all by about now 

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1 hour ago, Barrykearley said:

Yes - but the data is bound by the assumptions made - and that’s where the nuances  “OF” and “WITH” are very useful in the manipulation of such datasets. 
 

No. The data is clearly defined. There is no hiding or manipulation. You come at this with the premise that something is being hidden or people deceived, for which you provide no evidence.

59 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Yeah - to go into a shop - you need to wear a mask - to sit at a table in a pub and get lashed - no mask required 👍

many pubs now shutting at 9pm 😳 and also having limited menus.

The logic behind these various scenarios has been explained to you. Nobody is stopping you from wearing a mask whenever you want.

11 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

Any one else getting fed up of seeing large swathes of the BBC news being taken up by a mega rich, entitled, tennis player and his fans who think it is so important that he is allowed to play a game of tennis?

His story does just not stack up. Got COVID, had a test that confirmed it (hence he has the paperwork) but went to several "awards" events including handing out awards to children in schools with no mask etc?  Then the BBC reporter says "that maybe he did not know he had COVID" - the whole story has more holes than a mega bar of Aero!

Why does anyone care enough to "protest" about this?  I thought the Aussie politician interviewed hit the nail on the head - why should he get the privilege of being allowed in through an exemption when hundreds or more of Australians and other people were not allowed in under compassionate grounds to see dying parents, family members in critical conditions etc?

The worlds gone made and he just needs to quietly get on his private jet and hiss off back home.

 

Apparently the Federal government wrote to the Tennis Australia on the 29th November making it perfectly clear what the entry requirements to Australia are. The spokesman couldn't understand how TA had either mislaid or failed to understand this information!

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9 minutes ago, SFO said:

Really? I seem to remember a million cases a day, 10,000 hospital admissions a day, and around 5,000 deaths a day .. all by about now 

I should go back and check your figures. You will also quickly realise how silly the figures are you have just 'quoted' if you look at them a bit more closely.

I think your 'memory' is misleading you ...

 

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25 minutes ago, gregs24 said:

I should go back and check your figures. You will also quickly realise how silly the figures are you have just 'quoted' if you look at them a bit more closely.

I think your 'memory' is misleading you ...

 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/does-warwick-s-omicron-modelling-make-restrictions-more-likely-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/08/new-dodgy-data-row-ukhsa-warned-implausible-covid-statistics/

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1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

No. The data is clearly defined. There is no hiding or manipulation. You come at this with the premise that something is being hidden or people deceived, for which you provide no evidence.

Read my post in its exacting English manner - without the need for literature inference. 


The data has been presented in such a manner that one could suggest it tells the story to justify the actions with the definitions you so rightly highlight.

consider changing the definition oh only ever so slightly and the picture is completely different - to be explicitly clear before you accuse me of ignoring your expert opinion. Remove “with” and present data only “of” covid as a reason for death and that removes many of the deaths in the last 2 years from those statistics does it not?

 

1 hour ago, SFO said:

Really? I seem to remember a million cases a day, 10,000 hospital admissions a day, and around 5,000 deaths a day .. all by about now 

Sshhh - want me to make you a new foil hat as well?

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1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

The logic behind these various scenarios has been explained to you. Nobody is stopping you from wearing a mask whenever you want.

Again - consider the science you so love to quote - this no masks in a pub pishe is an utter joke and makes a total mockery of policy.

It’s a logical as only wearing a condom for foreplay 👍

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I see Drakeford is having a go at Boris for not having the same tougher rules that Wales have.

TBH I can’t get my head around the logIc of some of the Welsh rules. For example you can go to the Cinema in a group of no more than 6 and then sit indoors with 300 or so more people for 2 hours with the cinema having no requirement to ensure social distancing.

Drakeford really needs to start admitting what most of the Welsh people know. He is a Welsh Nationalist operating under a Labour banner since he knows that he’d get no ware if he stuck to his true beliefs.

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59927306
 

looks like the government’s own policy will make some extra vacancies within the nhs. Nice little earner for contract agencies to swoop up those staff and redeploy them back within the same departments 👍

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9 hours ago, SFO said:

Really? I seem to remember a million cases a day, 10,000 hospital admissions a day, and around 5,000 deaths a day .. all by about now 

OK lets look at that a little more closely. 10,000 hospitalisations per day and 5000 deaths, so 1 in 2 admitted to hospital will die. Please provide me with where this was predicted and at what point there has ever been a 1 in 2 death rate in hospital admissions. Silly figures aren't they 😉

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8 hours ago, SFO said:

Try reading what you post

Does Warwick’s Omicron modelling make restrictions more likely? | The Spectator

In a 'worse case scenario' hospital admissions could reach 7000 per day (WORST CASE REMEMBER and NOT 10,000 per day). They are currently running at 2000+ per day and climbing, so probably not reached the peak yet. Yet you call them out as a failure of modelling! Shall we review this again in two or three weeks when we will actually know the answer like last time ?

6 hours ago, PaulCP said:

I see Drakeford is having a go at Boris for not having the same tougher rules that Wales have.

TBH I can’t get my head around the logIc of some of the Welsh rules. For example you can go to the Cinema in a group of no more than 6 and then sit indoors with 300 or so more people for 2 hours with the cinema having no requirement to ensure social distancing.

Drakeford really needs to start admitting what most of the Welsh people know. He is a Welsh Nationalist operating under a Labour banner since he knows that he’d get no ware if he stuck to his true beliefs.

He is playing politics. It wouldn't be so bad if the devolved countries were more effective in controlling omicron, but they aren't.

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8 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Read my post in its exacting English manner - without the need for literature inference. 


The data has been presented in such a manner that one could suggest it tells the story to justify the actions with the definitions you so rightly highlight.

consider changing the definition oh only ever so slightly and the picture is completely different - to be explicitly clear before you accuse me of ignoring your expert opinion. Remove “with” and present data only “of” covid as a reason for death and that removes many of the deaths in the last 2 years from those statistics does it not?

 

 

 

OK once and for all - not sure how many times you need this explained. There are 3 metrics for 'death from/ with COVID. All clear - all presented by the BBC and in fact the daily TV reported figure is almost the lowest of the three. NOTHING hidden, definitions CLEAR, NO CONSPIRACY. In addition if you want more information on certification of death please read here:

guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

This is strictly governed by international standards

Your points about 'with' and 'of' are clearly covered and NOT something that is not considered.

 

Chart showing the three ways of measuring deaths from Covid - the government figure of 150,154 includes all deaths within 28 days of a positive result; the ONS counts all death certificate mentions and that figure is now 173,248; the excess death figures is the number of deaths over and above the usual total and that figure is now 149,766

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8 hours ago, gregs24 said:

Your points about 'with' and 'of' are clearly covered and NOT something that is not considered.

Utter tosh. What you have posted does not address that - it simply doesn’t. 
Doctors were instructed on how to fill out death certificates early on in the pandemic to avoid the need for autopsy. 
There is no metric published that shows cause of death “OF” covid.
The deaths over and above the usual number - yeah that’s a moot one - how does anyone know what this last couple of years flu impacts are? As that can swing wildly season to season.

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10 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Utter tosh. What you have posted does not address that - it simply doesn’t. 
Doctors were instructed on how to fill out death certificates early on in the pandemic to avoid the need for autopsy. 
There is no metric published that shows cause of death “OF” covid.
 

It's clear irrefutable evidence, it is rock solid, like all Government information and statistics 😂

UK Government doesn't do manipulation, oh no, it doesn't 😂

9 hours ago, gregs24 said:

This is strictly governed by international standards
 

Please do elaborate and provide the links to these international standards.

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