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Scottish Independence


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I think it would be a very similar process, i.e. there were significant issues encountered while leaving the EU which were eventually overcome by negotiations.

Single currency/central bank - Scotland could set up whatever central bank / currency arrangements it wanted, e.g. join the Euro and use the ECB system, or set up their own currency & independent central bank.  There would be a divorce agreement to manage the transition with the UK much like the Withdrawal Agreement & Brexit deal.

Border - the UK has a land border with the EU in Ireland, which was at risk of becoming a hard border throughout the negotiations.  

Mandate - I'm not commenting on whether it's appropriate to have another referendum, just on the arguments being used for maintaining the union and where they're coming from.  E.g. Matt Hancock talking about avoiding 'narrow nationalism' with a portrait of the Queen and a Union Jack in his office background..

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The ONLY reason that there is no hard border between NI and Eire is due to the Good Friday Agreement - NI is a unique case. In fact I believe it's written into the EU rules that there MUST be a hard border unless you are in customs union with the EU, they are absolutely committed to protecting their single market. Of course the UK is not in a customs union so a hard border is absolutely inevitable between an EU Scotland and a non-EU England.

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The threats of a no-deal Brexit would have created major issues on the Irish border, which are comparable to a new hard border between Scotland/England.  We have also had to create new infrastructure/checks between NI and GB, and in Kent, so I'm not sure there's a vast difference between this and a hard Scottish border.

The UK didn't have to leave the customs union or single market to 'brexit' (e.g. many wanted a Norway-style deal), so any additional complications are the result of decisions by those in power.

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Sorry, I thought you were saying that there would not be a hard border between England and Scotland because any probelms would be solved by negotiation?

"I think it would be a very similar process, i.e. there were significant issues encountered while leaving the EU which were eventually overcome by negotiations.

Border - the UK has a land border with the EU in Ireland, which was at risk of becoming a hard border throughout the negotiations."

It's a straightforward fact. England is not part of a customs union with the EU. Therefore, if Scotland became a member of the EU (which is a crucial part of the SNP independence plan) then a hard border between England and Scotland is inevitable. I'm genuinely not sure if you are agreeing with this or not?

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All quite confusing from this side of the pond. All I know of Scotland, I get from the telly. I do know the difference between Scots and Scotch though I hear both are "quite tasty."

[end levity, resume discussion]

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1 hour ago, Doug Ashley said:

e.g. many wanted a Norway-style deal

And the irony is that Norway and Switzerland what a deal like ours now.

The border issue depends on where you are coming from and NI/Eire WAS different, to brush over the issues of the "troubles" is lunacy to try to justify it would the same for rUK and Scotland.

1 hour ago, Doug Ashley said:

Scotland could set up whatever central bank / currency arrangements it wanted, e.g. join the Euro and use the ECB system, or set up their own currency & independent central bank.

Really. They could choose to "use" someone elses currency, for instance the Pound or the Euro, however there would be no fiscal agreement and no fiscal autonomy, so what exactly would the newly formed "Central Bank" actually do? It would not be setting interest rates. Have the ability to "print money". Have the ability to really influence anything of any importance. It would be impotent. Useless really. Just another central "drain" on taxpayers. And most of the higher rate tax payers would have left anyway even though the SNP have committed to a low tax economy.  I just wish someone in the SNP had at least read the Ladybird books on "counting" and "sums". Brexit, we will know in 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 years if it has been successful or not. For Scotland. Where I live. I think it will be less.

53 minutes ago, duncx said:

It's a straightforward fact. England is not part of a customs union with the EU. Therefore, if Scotland became a member of the EU (which is a crucial part of the SNP independence plan) then a hard border between England and Scotland is inevitable. I'm genuinely not sure if you are agreeing with this or not?

The main issue with the border will not be trade. It will be Scotland's in the EU issue around "freedom of movement". I.e. anyone from EU could travel freely to Scotland then just "walk over" the border to rUK. That would not be tolerated and so a hard border would be required. A nightmare situation.

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25 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

The main issue with the border will not be trade. It will be Scotland's in the EU issue around "freedom of movement". I.e. anyone from EU could travel freely to Scotland then just "walk over" the border to rUK. That would not be tolerated and so a hard border would be required. A nightmare situation.

 

True, but the FOM issue is a decision for rUK - we could (unlikely :lol:) allow EU citizens to cross the border at will, it's a purely political decision for rUK.

My point is, it's written in stone in the EU rules that unless you are in a customs union with them they will demand a hard border - it's NOT up for negotiation.

Like you say, a nightmare situation :(

EDIT: Sorry, yeah you're right, the EU wouldn'ty allow rUK citizens to wander back the other way either :lol:

 

Edited by duncx
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My point was really about the process of implementing Scottish independence. As a process it would be very similar to Brexit, and the solutions to the problems may be detrimental and unexpected (e.g. we now have a border within the UK). 

Brexit has made Scottish independence both more likely to happen, and less likely to succeed if it does.

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2 hours ago, Doug Ashley said:

My point was really about the process of implementing Scottish independence. As a process it would be very similar to Brexit, and the solutions to the problems may be detrimental and unexpected (e.g. we now have a border within the UK). 

Brexit has made Scottish independence both more likely to happen, and less likely to succeed if it does.

completely different process .. one is splitting up a country, the other is leaving a club

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There are many similarities.

- Replacing reams of existing law with new legal text.

- Citizens' rights affected and to be defined, particularly affecting families with multiple nationalities.

- The leaving party exiting the group's parliamentary system.

- Negotiations over the flow of goods/services across borders.

- Financial divorce agreement to negotiate.

- New systems and infrastructure to be set up to replace any shared services lost, and to manage the new relationship.


Untangling our relationship with the EU 'club' took nearly five years to implement.

In contrast I can’t find an example of a country voting for independence and then declaring independence more than four years later.  Montenegro took *weeks* in 2006.

I'm not saying they are identical processes, but there are many parallels and the arguments for and against Scottish independence sound very similar to those for Brexit. Both seem an utterly bonkers waste of time, energy and money to me, as you may have guessed..

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12 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Today is a strange day. I can finally find myself agreeing with old kranky

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55828371

Yes, but when he does not travel during "emergencies" she just uses it to show that he "does not care" about Scotland the North. Is too London centric. Yadda dadda. You can never win a sane argument with the SNP.

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11 hours ago, Doug Ashley said:

Brexit has made Scottish independence both more likely to happen, and less likely to succeed if it does.

As I said earlier. Only 50k less people voted for Brexit than they did for the SNP at the last election. Brexit was as divisive an issue with SNP supporters as it was in the UK.  I actually think you are wrong and that IF we go to the vote up here, as a result of Brexit, Independence is LESS likely due to a realisation that will be pointed out through the campaigns that:

1. Scotland will not get early, quick or preferential entry BACK into the EU -estimates are current 4 - 10 years to re-join and several countries in the EU have made it clear they don't want any special considerations for Scotland due to their own issues around splits, and as Scotland would not be a net contributor for the first decade of it's membership

2. Scotland will need to dramatically reduce it's reliance upon public spending to meet the base financial criteria for joining the EU (which will also limit the SNP's ability to "borrow" their way out of trouble for the first few years after Independence) and to strictly adhere to the rules it would need a fully functioning central bank with full fiscal control - so not the pound or the Euro as they currently stand

3. The imposition of a potential hard border between rUK and Scotland due to Scotland being forced into Shengen if it (long shot I know) re-joins the EU

4. The potential impact on, and loss of trade (as per Brexit) with their largest, by far, trading partner the rUK AND the fact they will not have a trade deal with the EU and will need to negotiate their own - good luck with getting good terms on that. If you thought was Brexit was a bad deal....

 

The vote will again be close. The stakes are very high. The SNP will do ANYTHING to win as they know that if they lose a second referendum in a row, it will good bye Independence for at least 20 years. The nation will not tolerate a 3rd vote on this any time soon and the SNP will be a busted flush. Faced with those desperate realities, politicians and their parties will do desperate things to win and hang the consequences.

 

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The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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55 minutes ago, Doug Ashley said:

I'm not saying they are identical processes, but there are many parallels and the arguments for and against Scottish independence sound very similar to those for Brexit. Both seem an utterly bonkers waste of time, energy and money to me, as you may have guessed..

For me, Brexit is 'a bit silly', but however questionable or difficult the process and results of Brexit are you can magnify everything by a factor of 10 when talking about Scotland leaving the UK.

Utterly bonkers x10 if you like :lol:

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15 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

As I said earlier. Only 50k less people voted for Brexit than they did for the SNP at the last election.

Where do you keep getting that figure from and what’s the relevance?

According to the Electoral Commission, the 2016 EU referendum in Scotland yielded the following results:

Remain 1,661,191 votes. Leave 1,018,322 votes. Electorate 3,987,112. 67.2% turnout.

Now for the 2019 General Election:

SNP 1,242,380 votes (45% of vote and 224,058 more than the 2016 Leave vote, not 50,000).

Both elections had similar turn-outs. Don’t forget that the EU referendum was a binary vote, whereas the General Election provides a number of voting options which share out the vote. SNP, Labour 19%), Conservative (25%), Lib Dems (10%) etc. In fact if you add on the staunchly Remain Lib Dem votes to the SNP ones, you would have 55% of the vote for self-declared Remain parties, irrespective of the views of the various candidates in the mainly Remain Labour and mainly Leave Conservative parties.

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Scotland leaving the UK seems to be to be that Sturgeon wants to be remembered as the politician that did it and Johnson doesn't want to be remembered as the one who let it happen. 

As far as I'm aware, Scotland leaving would be bad news for them and good news for rUk from a financial standpoint, they should both be pushing in the opposite directions that they are in reality but that's not going to get a statue somewhere is it!

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3 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

Where do you keep getting that figure from and what’s the relevance?

According to the Electoral Commission, the 2016 EU referendum in Scotland yielded the following results:

Remain 1,661,191 votes. Leave 1,018,322 votes. Electorate 3,987,112. 67.2% turnout.

Now for the 2019 General Election:

SNP 1,242,380 votes (45% of vote and 224,058 more than the 2016 Leave vote, not 50,000).

If you read my first post on this (where I first used the figures I keep getting), you would have seen that I was talking about the Scottish Elections in 2016, not the Westminster Elections in 2019. The reason for that is that the SNP have taken their "mandate" for independence based on their win and the votes cast then. That was a much more "relevant" election, to Scotland, than the 2019 UK wide one.

Hope that clarifies for you :)

 

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If the Scots vote for independence based on the fact that they will then rejoin the EU, as the SNP keep telling them, I trust that they have the path back to the EU laid out in front of them and guaranteed acceptance by the EU prior to the vote.

Sturgeon is no leader she, along with the rest of the SNP MPs in Parliament, is just the Scottish version of Corbyn. An activist not a politician.

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Oh you do make me laugh Paul! :)

Mapped out? Guarantees? lol.

Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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I was laughing as I wrote it 👍, but, IMO, the point is valid

Who are the Scots going to blame if they gain independence on the back of a vote which they believed would take them back in to the EU when it doesn’t happen.

If I was Boris I would let Sturgeon have the independence vote again but with the proviso that a full 7 year financial plan for Scotland, including a pre agreed divorce settlement, is signed off by an independent audit and given to the Scots before the vote takes place.

I mean, the SNP surely have such a financial plan already don’t they 😂

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41 minutes ago, PaulCP said:

the SNP surely have such a financial plan already don’t they

They had one last time - well. There was something on the back of the fag packet.

If you recall they boasted about having a letter guaranteeing Scotland a place in Europe. The below was from The Times back then. This is shit or bust for the SNP this time around. If you thought the BS was off the scale last time, well to quote that well known saying "you ain't seen nothing yet!"

 

Alex Salmond has been ridiculed after he used a letter lifted from the internet to challenge the Spanish Prime Minister’s position that an independent Scotland would not be a member of the European Union.

Mariano Rajoy said that a separate Scotland would find itself outside the EU and have to secure the approval of all 28 members to get in, but at First Minister’s Questions yesterday, Mr Salmond announced that he had a letter from the European Commission which supported his assertion that a separate Scotland would negotiate its membership from within the fold. Less than an hour later, Mr Salmond had to admit that the crucial missive was taken from a website with Nationalist sympathies. 

 
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I’m still not quite getting the point of the election statistics. I think you might be basing on these votes:

2016 Brexit vote: 1,661,191 Remain. 1,018,322 Leave. 67.2% turnout.

2016 MSP vote: 1,059,897 SNP. 514,261 Conservative. 501,844 Labour. 178,238 Lib Dem. Only 55.6% turnout.

You cannot directly compare the vote numbers, a) because of the 11.6% lower MSP vote turnout (boring routine Scottish Parliament election, compared to excitement of independence vote) and b) the non binary MSP vote being split across 4 major Parties.

I think we can all agree that Scotland voted to Remain in the EU. Whether a majority of Scottish voters would vote for independence now that we have all left the EU (if they had another opportunity) is a moot point. I personally don’t really care that much. They already have their own bank notes that no-one wants down South....

 

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I'm trying to keep it, like me, very simple.

1,059,897 people, actually voted in a Scotland only government election for the SNP - as a result SNP say they have a mandate for Independence

In the same year, 1,018,322 people, actually voted, in Scotland for Brexit - as a result the SNP say Scotland has been "dragged" out of Europe against it's will

The difference in people "actually" voting for one thing and the other is 51k - yet one is an emphatic victory for Independence and the other is Scotland being dragged out of Europe against it's will.  The point I am making is around the political messaging based upon the very small difference in actual votes cast.

Indeed, go a step further and in 2014 1.6m Scots were robbed of their chance for independence - which coincidentally is almost the same number as voted to Remain. So again, WTF did the people of Scotland ACTUALLY vote for?  I am trying to show how close and fcuked up the whole thing is and the irony around the "spin" from the SNP.

Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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