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Scottish Independence


Kimbers

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15 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

As I said earlier. Only 50k less people voted for Brexit than they did for the SNP at the last election.

Where do you keep getting that figure from and what’s the relevance?

According to the Electoral Commission, the 2016 EU referendum in Scotland yielded the following results:

Remain 1,661,191 votes. Leave 1,018,322 votes. Electorate 3,987,112. 67.2% turnout.

Now for the 2019 General Election:

SNP 1,242,380 votes (45% of vote and 224,058 more than the 2016 Leave vote, not 50,000).

Both elections had similar turn-outs. Don’t forget that the EU referendum was a binary vote, whereas the General Election provides a number of voting options which share out the vote. SNP, Labour 19%), Conservative (25%), Lib Dems (10%) etc. In fact if you add on the staunchly Remain Lib Dem votes to the SNP ones, you would have 55% of the vote for self-declared Remain parties, irrespective of the views of the various candidates in the mainly Remain Labour and mainly Leave Conservative parties.

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Scotland leaving the UK seems to be to be that Sturgeon wants to be remembered as the politician that did it and Johnson doesn't want to be remembered as the one who let it happen. 

As far as I'm aware, Scotland leaving would be bad news for them and good news for rUk from a financial standpoint, they should both be pushing in the opposite directions that they are in reality but that's not going to get a statue somewhere is it!

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3 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

Where do you keep getting that figure from and what’s the relevance?

According to the Electoral Commission, the 2016 EU referendum in Scotland yielded the following results:

Remain 1,661,191 votes. Leave 1,018,322 votes. Electorate 3,987,112. 67.2% turnout.

Now for the 2019 General Election:

SNP 1,242,380 votes (45% of vote and 224,058 more than the 2016 Leave vote, not 50,000).

If you read my first post on this (where I first used the figures I keep getting), you would have seen that I was talking about the Scottish Elections in 2016, not the Westminster Elections in 2019. The reason for that is that the SNP have taken their "mandate" for independence based on their win and the votes cast then. That was a much more "relevant" election, to Scotland, than the 2019 UK wide one.

Hope that clarifies for you :)

 

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If the Scots vote for independence based on the fact that they will then rejoin the EU, as the SNP keep telling them, I trust that they have the path back to the EU laid out in front of them and guaranteed acceptance by the EU prior to the vote.

Sturgeon is no leader she, along with the rest of the SNP MPs in Parliament, is just the Scottish version of Corbyn. An activist not a politician.

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Oh you do make me laugh Paul! :)

Mapped out? Guarantees? lol.

Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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I was laughing as I wrote it 👍, but, IMO, the point is valid

Who are the Scots going to blame if they gain independence on the back of a vote which they believed would take them back in to the EU when it doesn’t happen.

If I was Boris I would let Sturgeon have the independence vote again but with the proviso that a full 7 year financial plan for Scotland, including a pre agreed divorce settlement, is signed off by an independent audit and given to the Scots before the vote takes place.

I mean, the SNP surely have such a financial plan already don’t they 😂

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41 minutes ago, PaulCP said:

the SNP surely have such a financial plan already don’t they

They had one last time - well. There was something on the back of the fag packet.

If you recall they boasted about having a letter guaranteeing Scotland a place in Europe. The below was from The Times back then. This is shit or bust for the SNP this time around. If you thought the BS was off the scale last time, well to quote that well known saying "you ain't seen nothing yet!"

 

Alex Salmond has been ridiculed after he used a letter lifted from the internet to challenge the Spanish Prime Minister’s position that an independent Scotland would not be a member of the European Union.

Mariano Rajoy said that a separate Scotland would find itself outside the EU and have to secure the approval of all 28 members to get in, but at First Minister’s Questions yesterday, Mr Salmond announced that he had a letter from the European Commission which supported his assertion that a separate Scotland would negotiate its membership from within the fold. Less than an hour later, Mr Salmond had to admit that the crucial missive was taken from a website with Nationalist sympathies. 

 
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Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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I’m still not quite getting the point of the election statistics. I think you might be basing on these votes:

2016 Brexit vote: 1,661,191 Remain. 1,018,322 Leave. 67.2% turnout.

2016 MSP vote: 1,059,897 SNP. 514,261 Conservative. 501,844 Labour. 178,238 Lib Dem. Only 55.6% turnout.

You cannot directly compare the vote numbers, a) because of the 11.6% lower MSP vote turnout (boring routine Scottish Parliament election, compared to excitement of independence vote) and b) the non binary MSP vote being split across 4 major Parties.

I think we can all agree that Scotland voted to Remain in the EU. Whether a majority of Scottish voters would vote for independence now that we have all left the EU (if they had another opportunity) is a moot point. I personally don’t really care that much. They already have their own bank notes that no-one wants down South....

 

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I'm trying to keep it, like me, very simple.

1,059,897 people, actually voted in a Scotland only government election for the SNP - as a result SNP say they have a mandate for Independence

In the same year, 1,018,322 people, actually voted, in Scotland for Brexit - as a result the SNP say Scotland has been "dragged" out of Europe against it's will

The difference in people "actually" voting for one thing and the other is 51k - yet one is an emphatic victory for Independence and the other is Scotland being dragged out of Europe against it's will.  The point I am making is around the political messaging based upon the very small difference in actual votes cast.

Indeed, go a step further and in 2014 1.6m Scots were robbed of their chance for independence - which coincidentally is almost the same number as voted to Remain. So again, WTF did the people of Scotland ACTUALLY vote for?  I am trying to show how close and fcuked up the whole thing is and the irony around the "spin" from the SNP.

Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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3 hours ago, PaulCP said:

the Scottish version of Corbyn. An activist not a politician.

What an excellent penetrating and pithy summary of wee kranky 

4 hours ago, Neal H said:

What isn’t acceptable is 47 SNP MP’s in Westminster who’s sole agenda seems to be to undermine the workings of the U.K.

that's their democratic right .. but fortunately they don't have the numbers to do anything meaningful in Westminster 

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1 minute ago, SFO said:

What an excellent penetrating and pithy summary of wee kranky

She seems upset that Boris was in Scotland on a visit including the army/ hospital  etc, may be she was more upset that Boris did not want to see her?

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4 minutes ago, exeterjeep said:

She seems upset that Boris was in Scotland on a visit including the army/ hospital  etc, may be she was more upset that Boris did not want to see her?

Upset because Boris's vaccine plans are working out well

I don't think she has done well on this nonsensical objection - she has come across as small minded, self righteous, shrill and petty 

Ress Mogg called her "moanalot" 😂

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2 minutes ago, SFO said:

Ress Mogg called her "moanalot"

May be that's the sound when they get very close together....

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36 minutes ago, SFO said:

Upset because Boris's vaccine plans are working out well

I don't think she has done well on this nonsensical objection - she has come across as small minded, self righteous, shrill and petty 

Ress Mogg called her "moanalot" 😂

I recall a classic quote by John McDonnell in the run up to the last election.
He was asked for his reaction to something (can’t remember what) that Sturgeon had said she was outraged at.

His comment was “if you gave her a cup of tea with 2 sugars in it when she only wanted one sugar she would have to tell the world how outraged she was”

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If this is true (it is the D Mail) then it just proves what she’s really like, and confirms my assessment earlier, the actions of an activist.

No doubt she wants to put one over on Boris for visiting Scotland. Is she ready to give up the Scots vaccine allocation to the EU

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9196445/MEPs-threaten-TRADE-WAR-UK-vaccine-supplies.html

Can she still be shot for treason🤔

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I have had a few glasses of wine,  @Sparky approved I might add as I only have a drink if he does and it’s not going well to be honest. 
 

But.............

shouldn’t the rest of the UK have a vote on this as well? Maybe they want independence and maybe we don’t or do, I don’t know, feck it I will just drink some more Sparkles approved wine. 

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According to a study by the LSE, while the SNP keep complaining about the cost to their economy that Brexit will bring, independence will cost 3 times as much.

Brexit, trade and Scottish independence analysis

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I agree @Neal H. During the last "foreverendum" on Independence the "Yes" campaign was all about the future - it was painting a vision of a land full of free fried mars bars, buckfast and haggis roaming around the glens.  It was a vision of what could be with NO real fiscal scrutiny behind it and as such many people voted for it.

The "No" campaign mainly focused on the negatives and did not set out or paint a future vision.

As a result, I firmly believe there was some complacency and apathy and as a result what we ended up with was three camps:

1. The believers - those who passionately want independence and those who were taken in by the future vision and promises. I believe that the majority in this camp would have been sufficiently engaged to actually get off their arses and vote

2. The non believers - those who did not want independence and were not taken in by the future vision. I believe that many of these were sufficiently engaged, but not all, as many would have discounted / not believed that the Independence supporters were many or would win. I do believe this is what happened with REMAIN - a portion of the electorate could not be arsed to vote as they just did not believe that a sufficient number of people would be stupid enough to vote for Brexit.
 

3. The undecided - these will be were the battle is won or lost and if NO is to win it does need to not just focus on the fiscal arguments, but also the "vision" for the future

 

I do wonder if this time around, like with Brexit, we would not see an increase in No and Remain as people now understand how close the vote may be and whilst the "believers" were already totally engaged to vote, it is from the non believers that the biggest number of voters could be energised and so that would have the biggest "swing" effect. So in effect Brexit would be Remain and Independence would be a more emphatic no.

 

Hope these ramblings make sense.

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Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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Personally I think it should be a vote for the whole of the UK as it will effect everyone in the Union the same way leaving the EU was. I would agree to it on that Basis and that it is the final one ever.

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19 minutes ago, Kimbers said:

Personally I think it should be a vote for the whole of the UK as it will effect everyone in the Union the same way leaving the EU was. I would agree to it on that Basis and that it is the final one ever.

That could never work and would be a recipe for disaster. The view of the 60m would always counter the view of the 6m directly effected. Just look at Brexit where Scotland said Remain but the UK said leave.  Sorry. Not a viable approach.

Using your approach would also mean any "vote" on the unification of Ireland would be a UK wide vote. Good luck with that!

 

Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!    

The first guy to ride a bull for fun, was a true hero. The second man to follow him was truly nuts!   

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Be interested to see how the Salmond/Sturgeon 'spat' plays out over the next 2 weeks.  Can't imagine it will be the downfall of NS, but do they have any credible leaders in reserve?    At the end of the day she is supremely annoying, but she has been very effective - although I think she could push the anti-England rhetoric too far for some moderate supporters as she further ramps up the hysteria.

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