Scottish Independence

[Barrykearley]

Yea they love benefits and buckfast 🤪

[pete]

[C8RKH]

It's going to be painful when  your leader doesn't even know they've been "played"

 

In an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk, Italian MEP Marco Campomenosi explained why the chances of an independent Scotland joining the EU are very low.

He also revealed how, in order to disrupt internal politics in the UK, Brussels courted Ms Sturgeon at the beginning of the Brexit talks.

[SFO]

6 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

He also revealed how, in order to disrupt internal politics in the UK, Brussels courted Ms Sturgeon at the beginning of the Brexit talks.

I thought the whole thing treacherous .. and Theresa May put up with it. 

[C8RKH]

1 hour ago, SFO said:

I thought the whole thing treacherous .. and Theresa May put up with it. 

Desperate people (the EU) will do desperate things and to be honest the EU "punishment" of the UK is still going on now.  I love Europe, but I really cannot stand the politics of the EU. It is full of free loaders, snakes, worms and self serving back stabbers who don't give a flying fig for the people of Europe, it's all about them. Crazy how so many so called intelligent people and self proclaimed future see'ers in the UK have been duped and are drunk on the BS of those unelected cronies.

[Kimbers]

As per the Express article, If Scotland got accepted then it would set a precedence for other places such as Catalonia to apply hence why Spain would never agree. Then you have other places that have a large % of their population asking for independence like Corsica, Bavaria and even Sardinia. 

I just don't see it. Especially as Scotland will need an awful lot more support coming in than they will contribute and right now the Eu is struggling to replace the UK's Net Contribution!

[C8RKH]

A very interesting and intelligently written short read from an Academic in Edinburgh. She's also very brave as she will get targeted on social media for this.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-subversion-of-history-education-in-scotland

The "airbrushing" and twisting of facts is quite astounding, but not as much as the forward planning as this was going on for 10 years before the "vote" and goes some way to explain why the SNP Government was so keen on getting 16-18 year olds included in the vote.  It also may explain (1) the rise in nationalist support amongst the younger generation and (2) and the rise in racist attacks in the country.  I have been called a "traitor" for buying a 2ltr bottle of Tesco's own brand Sparkling Water (because it was "English" - hardly my fault that was all they had on the shelf as an own brand).  A guy walking past my Evora, when I was sat in it with the window open, referred to me as an "English [email protected]@t" whilst remarking about the Union Flag on the side of the car. I've been told to "fook off back to England" many times (can't say as I blame them really).

However, just to balance things somewhat, I have many Scottish Friends, acquaintances, colleagues and family (my mother is Scottish after all) who are warm, welcoming, polite, funny, intelligent, etc. The minority of them support the SNP! 

 

[Buddsy]

Im not sure what I think about this really.

I like the Scottish and love the country. I do understand their pride of being Scottish. I cheers for their sports men and women but a little love back sometimes wouldnt go a miss. Always hell bent on supporting any team other than the English it seems.

Maybe the real problem is London is just too big for the Union as a whole. Everything is so London centric. Maybe if politics, jobs, culture was spread out much more evenly across the UK it would be better for everyone. If we could push for other cities to become much more equal to London it would be better for every one.

 

buddsy

[Doug Ashley]

If there is any resistance to Scotland rejoining the EU, a quick route for them might be a Celtic union with Ireland.  Probably unlikely, but they have more in common than Westminster & Holyrood seem to.

Irony overload lately, witnessing those who backed the 'independence' of the UK now telling Scots that we're 'stronger together' 🤔

[C8RKH]

@Buddsy- like with many things 

37 minutes ago, Doug Ashley said:

Irony overload lately, witnessing those who backed the 'independence' of the UK now telling Scots that we're 'stronger together' 🤔

It's not irony. You cannot compare the UK leaving the EU with Scotland leaving the UK. The only thing they have in common is that one party is leaving another party.

The issues are compounded by a single currency in the UK, no central bank in Scotland, a hard land border, etc.

Also please remember that almost as many Scots (less than 50k) voted for Brexit as did for the SNP at the last election. So some mandate that is for Independence after the country had said no when asked directly.

 

[Doug Ashley]

I think it would be a very similar process, i.e. there were significant issues encountered while leaving the EU which were eventually overcome by negotiations.

Single currency/central bank - Scotland could set up whatever central bank / currency arrangements it wanted, e.g. join the Euro and use the ECB system, or set up their own currency & independent central bank.  There would be a divorce agreement to manage the transition with the UK much like the Withdrawal Agreement & Brexit deal.

Border - the UK has a land border with the EU in Ireland, which was at risk of becoming a hard border throughout the negotiations.  

Mandate - I'm not commenting on whether it's appropriate to have another referendum, just on the arguments being used for maintaining the union and where they're coming from.  E.g. Matt Hancock talking about avoiding 'narrow nationalism' with a portrait of the Queen and a Union Jack in his office background..

[duncx]

The ONLY reason that there is no hard border between NI and Eire is due to the Good Friday Agreement - NI is a unique case. In fact I believe it's written into the EU rules that there MUST be a hard border unless you are in customs union with the EU, they are absolutely committed to protecting their single market. Of course the UK is not in a customs union so a hard border is absolutely inevitable between an EU Scotland and a non-EU England.

[Doug Ashley]

The threats of a no-deal Brexit would have created major issues on the Irish border, which are comparable to a new hard border between Scotland/England.  We have also had to create new infrastructure/checks between NI and GB, and in Kent, so I'm not sure there's a vast difference between this and a hard Scottish border.

The UK didn't have to leave the customs union or single market to 'brexit' (e.g. many wanted a Norway-style deal), so any additional complications are the result of decisions by those in power.

[duncx]

Sorry, I thought you were saying that there would not be a hard border between England and Scotland because any probelms would be solved by negotiation?

"I think it would be a very similar process, i.e. there were significant issues encountered while leaving the EU which were eventually overcome by negotiations.

Border - the UK has a land border with the EU in Ireland, which was at risk of becoming a hard border throughout the negotiations."

It's a straightforward fact. England is not part of a customs union with the EU. Therefore, if Scotland became a member of the EU (which is a crucial part of the SNP independence plan) then a hard border between England and Scotland is inevitable. I'm genuinely not sure if you are agreeing with this or not?

[yeller77]

All quite confusing from this side of the pond. All I know of Scotland, I get from the telly. I do know the difference between Scots and Scotch though I hear both are "quite tasty."

[end levity, resume discussion]

[C8RKH]

1 hour ago, Doug Ashley said:

e.g. many wanted a Norway-style deal

And the irony is that Norway and Switzerland what a deal like ours now.

The border issue depends on where you are coming from and NI/Eire WAS different, to brush over the issues of the "troubles" is lunacy to try to justify it would the same for rUK and Scotland.

1 hour ago, Doug Ashley said:

Scotland could set up whatever central bank / currency arrangements it wanted, e.g. join the Euro and use the ECB system, or set up their own currency & independent central bank.

Really. They could choose to "use" someone elses currency, for instance the Pound or the Euro, however there would be no fiscal agreement and no fiscal autonomy, so what exactly would the newly formed "Central Bank" actually do? It would not be setting interest rates. Have the ability to "print money". Have the ability to really influence anything of any importance. It would be impotent. Useless really. Just another central "drain" on taxpayers. And most of the higher rate tax payers would have left anyway even though the SNP have committed to a low tax economy.  I just wish someone in the SNP had at least read the Ladybird books on "counting" and "sums". Brexit, we will know in 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 years if it has been successful or not. For Scotland. Where I live. I think it will be less.

53 minutes ago, duncx said:

It's a straightforward fact. England is not part of a customs union with the EU. Therefore, if Scotland became a member of the EU (which is a crucial part of the SNP independence plan) then a hard border between England and Scotland is inevitable. I'm genuinely not sure if you are agreeing with this or not?

The main issue with the border will not be trade. It will be Scotland's in the EU issue around "freedom of movement". I.e. anyone from EU could travel freely to Scotland then just "walk over" the border to rUK. That would not be tolerated and so a hard border would be required. A nightmare situation.

[Barrykearley]

Today is a strange day. I can finally find myself agreeing with old kranky

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55828371

[duncx]

25 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

The main issue with the border will not be trade. It will be Scotland's in the EU issue around "freedom of movement". I.e. anyone from EU could travel freely to Scotland then just "walk over" the border to rUK. That would not be tolerated and so a hard border would be required. A nightmare situation.

 

True, but the FOM issue is a decision for rUK - we could (unlikely ) allow EU citizens to cross the border at will, it's a purely political decision for rUK.

My point is, it's written in stone in the EU rules that unless you are in a customs union with them they will demand a hard border - it's NOT up for negotiation.

Like you say, a nightmare situation

EDIT: Sorry, yeah you're right, the EU wouldn'ty allow rUK citizens to wander back the other way either

 

Edited January 27 by duncx

[Barrykearley]

It  was all so simple in Ireland 🤔

[Doug Ashley]

My point was really about the process of implementing Scottish independence. As a process it would be very similar to Brexit, and the solutions to the problems may be detrimental and unexpected (e.g. we now have a border within the UK). 

Brexit has made Scottish independence both more likely to happen, and less likely to succeed if it does.

[SFO]

2 hours ago, Doug Ashley said:

My point was really about the process of implementing Scottish independence. As a process it would be very similar to Brexit, and the solutions to the problems may be detrimental and unexpected (e.g. we now have a border within the UK). 

Brexit has made Scottish independence both more likely to happen, and less likely to succeed if it does.

completely different process .. one is splitting up a country, the other is leaving a club

[Doug Ashley]

There are many similarities.

- Replacing reams of existing law with new legal text.

- Citizens' rights affected and to be defined, particularly affecting families with multiple nationalities.

- The leaving party exiting the group's parliamentary system.

- Negotiations over the flow of goods/services across borders.

- Financial divorce agreement to negotiate.

- New systems and infrastructure to be set up to replace any shared services lost, and to manage the new relationship.

Untangling our relationship with the EU 'club' took nearly five years to implement.

In contrast I can’t find an example of a country voting for independence and then declaring independence more than four years later.  Montenegro took *weeks* in 2006.

I'm not saying they are identical processes, but there are many parallels and the arguments for and against Scottish independence sound very similar to those for Brexit. Both seem an utterly bonkers waste of time, energy and money to me, as you may have guessed..

[C8RKH]

12 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Today is a strange day. I can finally find myself agreeing with old kranky

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55828371

Yes, but when he does not travel during "emergencies" she just uses it to show that he "does not care" about Scotland the North. Is too London centric. Yadda dadda. You can never win a sane argument with the SNP.

[C8RKH]

11 hours ago, Doug Ashley said:

Brexit has made Scottish independence both more likely to happen, and less likely to succeed if it does.

As I said earlier. Only 50k less people voted for Brexit than they did for the SNP at the last election. Brexit was as divisive an issue with SNP supporters as it was in the UK.  I actually think you are wrong and that IF we go to the vote up here, as a result of Brexit, Independence is LESS likely due to a realisation that will be pointed out through the campaigns that:

1. Scotland will not get early, quick or preferential entry BACK into the EU -estimates are current 4 - 10 years to re-join and several countries in the EU have made it clear they don't want any special considerations for Scotland due to their own issues around splits, and as Scotland would not be a net contributor for the first decade of it's membership

2. Scotland will need to dramatically reduce it's reliance upon public spending to meet the base financial criteria for joining the EU (which will also limit the SNP's ability to "borrow" their way out of trouble for the first few years after Independence) and to strictly adhere to the rules it would need a fully functioning central bank with full fiscal control - so not the pound or the Euro as they currently stand

3. The imposition of a potential hard border between rUK and Scotland due to Scotland being forced into Shengen if it (long shot I know) re-joins the EU

4. The potential impact on, and loss of trade (as per Brexit) with their largest, by far, trading partner the rUK AND the fact they will not have a trade deal with the EU and will need to negotiate their own - good luck with getting good terms on that. If you thought was Brexit was a bad deal....

 

The vote will again be close. The stakes are very high. The SNP will do ANYTHING to win as they know that if they lose a second referendum in a row, it will good bye Independence for at least 20 years. The nation will not tolerate a 3rd vote on this any time soon and the SNP will be a busted flush. Faced with those desperate realities, politicians and their parties will do desperate things to win and hang the consequences.

 

[duncx]

55 minutes ago, Doug Ashley said:

I'm not saying they are identical processes, but there are many parallels and the arguments for and against Scottish independence sound very similar to those for Brexit. Both seem an utterly bonkers waste of time, energy and money to me, as you may have guessed..

For me, Brexit is 'a bit silly', but however questionable or difficult the process and results of Brexit are you can magnify everything by a factor of 10 when talking about Scotland leaving the UK.

Utterly bonkers x10 if you like

Edited January 28 by duncx