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Euro question - 23rd June

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1 hour ago, Stubox said:
2 hours ago, JG220 said:

Is that really necessary? :(

 

I found some of your posts quite unecessary bordering on offensive so responded and addressed them. That's all. I too can have feelings you know.

As someone famous once said "just because you are offended it does not mean you are right".

You are just more subtle about it than me.

 

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@JG220, @C8RKH - Please don't post in this thread again in response to each other, any posts will be deleted and if you give me lots of work deleting posts, I'll take further action to restrict your posting. This isn't a point for discussion. Thank you. 

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Ok

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4 hours ago, Steve V8 said:

I don't think you can James, 

To do that you'll need to step outside of your bubble into the real world.

Freedom of movement...you need to get out into the towns and villages to see the impact on infrastructure and housing, my little town used to be be surrounded by greenbelt land, it's all gone, and the government wants to build 10 million new homes, for who? most of our European friends aren't working, they're claiming, taking out, not putting in.

Finance and tech may be doing well in the cities, but our manufacturing base around the country is systematically being sold off, and or stripped and moved into central and eastern Europe. Basic economics should tell you that's a recipe for disaster, and don't blame brexit, it's been going on for years. Given a chance to start trading and building up a competitive industry, our politicians throw it away. And bollocks to making wings for Airbus, let's compete and build the whole damn plane. 

Which bigger picture are you seeing?

One of you and Anna Subrey swigging Reisling and eating camembert whilst burning the Union Jack.

That's how you're coming across

 

 

Steve, some responses to your points

I think you're right about the housing crisis. While it may partly be down to net migration, the issue is that housing, in the south east at least, is just too expensive. Swathes of housing in these areas are just investment vehicles (often unlived in). I don' think that's fundamentally a migration issue, and it would be quite easy to legislate against.  As for EU immigrants they are net contributors. only 2.2% of EU migrants in UK claim benefits according to this https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/how-many-eu-migrants-claim-benefits-in-the-uk/ (the data is 4 years old, I'll grant you that, however suspect it hasn't shifted either way). 

I don't think that protectionism will save manufacturing. Why would Brexit save those jobs? The UK will have to sign up to traffic agreements with the EU, and likely other nations post WA, and coming form a position of weakness means we'll get a deal which will be unfavourable at best. Even if, let's assume that the deal was at least as good as we have it now, still those manufacturing jobs are just as likely to be at risk as they are now. Why would anyone wanting access to the European (the UK market, while attractive, is still going to be too small to make major investment for access to it only) market build in Britain?

I couldn't agree with you more about the state of investment in the UK, especially in Tech. Actually at the moment, it is largely driven by Brexit uncertainty. Investment £s are not flowing and it's a big issue. VCs are waiting until there is some kind of white smoke for what will happen next. Meanwhile the rest of Europe is pining for its Brexit dividend, and the capital investment is going there instead. To a certain extent the damage is already done. 

I like Riesling and Camembert, so hopefully those will be low tariff items 😜 

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You have incorrectly quoted the figures.

The correct figure is 2.2% of all claimants are immigrants from the EU. Thats a large figure. 113960 people to be precise.

Furthermore the figures on being "net contributors" are fiddled to give the "correct" result because they do not take into account any effect on local job displacement. They assume no EU immigrants take away any jobs or cause any wage compression of existing workers.

The study you quoted was funded by the EU and is a clear example of EU bending the truth to further their own ends. A classic case of plucking the figures selectively out to get the result they want. 

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Ah yes, good point. I miss-read that. Finally, some decent and sensible debate. I stand corrected. 

In any event 2.2% of the total welfare bill is relatively small. It would be interesting to know how many UK nationals are claiming benefits (especially retirement ones in France for example) in the EU. This article (if I have read it correctly!) suggests around 30k (but that they are much more generous than we are)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu

Do we really believe though that Immigrants are 'taking away our jobs'? I thought we already had mass resource shortages, due to the effects of pre-brexit (be they nurses, fruit pickers etc)

Edited by ramjet
Bibs said about four posts earlier, there is no need to quote the reply directly above your own.

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12 minutes ago, JG220 said:

Finally, some decent and sensible debate.

Really? You're on thin ice mate, don't take the piss. 

And it's not debate, it's showing the figures you're basing your arguments on are quoted incorrectly for your own ends. That's not debate, that's just correcting inaccuracy which you quote as fact. 

Having recently been in a long term relationship with an EU national living in the UK, I've also seen first hand the huge grey market that exists in the UK for those who have travelled west. Tradesmen turning over £100k+ with no VAT/Corp/Personal tax even being considered and from what I saw, almost immunity from HMRC for it. That's not so easy when you're a UK national with NI number, tax records etc. I'd imagine this white elephant costs our economy a lot more than those on benefits, which are in fact incredibly hard to get for EU nationals in real terms. 

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In reality nobody knows what will happen once the UK leaves the EU.

A couple of observations. The big unknown is what will happen to our exchange rate, assuming we leave. I have now seen two reports out of Germany (neither from Brexit supporting organisations I would add) that suggest that one of the biggest concerns of their industry is that the tariffs that will apply under WTO terms, plus a devaluation of the pound, will mean that German manufactured product will be prohibitively expensive in the UK, one of their largest markets. The same survey suggested that the impact of tariffs would be nullified for UK manufactured product through a devaluation, even accounting for the back and forth required under complicated supply chains. Clearly if the currency doesn’t devalue, this won’t be the case and the UK will likely suffer. Interestingly though, the survey then stated that the majority of German business would be prepared to see a restriction to the four fundamental freedoms of the EU, if that meant closer relations with the UK. The stated view of EU politicians is obviously different.

On the UK, it’s biggest issue for years has been poor productivity. One reason this may be the case is a lack of investment in processes and technology. There are many views on how this can be dealt with and nobody has the full solution. One point that is difficult to challenge though is that if business can import cheap labour, and that same business has a short term view of planning, investment will always be limited. If you take agriculture as an example, if you can import cheap labour as many do to pick fruit, you don’t need to invest and seek ways of making processes more efficient through innovation; a double edged sword then.  Now, if we remove access to cheap labour business will either be forced to invest, or will fundamentally fail. Again, nobody knows what will happen.

One way that the UK missed a trick (applying hindsight) was the decision not to join the Euro. The value for the Euro is realised based on the purchasing power of all EU nationals - an average if you like. The strongest economies who, on a stand-alone basis, would drive their currency higher, benefit through an effective devaluation through the single currency. It’s a main reason why Germany has the second largest trade surplus in the world. If the UK had joined the EU, it would likely have benefitted in a similar way. Retaining the pound on reflection was not a good decision.

I could carry on with various points but I go back to my initial observation, nobody really knows what will happen. Basic economic theory however will tell you that even if we leave the EU without a deal, whilst there will undoubtedly be some rebalancing, the UK is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, has a highly skilled workforce, and has significant purchasing power, so it will adapt with only short to medium term pain at worst.

The question for me then is whether we are prepared to risk the cost of that short to medium term pain to achieve the political and societal change that some desire. Either way though, I’n pretty confident that we will be fine.

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2 minutes ago, Gm77 said:

On the UK, it’s biggest issue for years has been poor productivity. One reason this may be the case is a lack of investment in processes and technology. There are many views on how this can be dealt with and nobody has the full solution. One point that is difficult to challenge though is that if business can import cheap labour, and that same business has a short term view of planning, investment will always be limited. If you take agriculture as an example, if you can import cheap labour as many do to pick fruit, you don’t need to invest and seek ways of making processes more efficient through innovation; a double edged sword then.  Now, if we remove access to cheap labour business will either be forced to invest, or will fundamentally fail.

I could not agree more with your comments here re efficiency and innovation. In fact, one of the things I was betting on with Brexit was good old fashioned British ingenuity being deployed to help us get out of the mess. I would add however, that one of the biggest issues many of our businesses face is the recent, over the past 10 years or so, drive to the American system of demanding quarterly results improvements and the increase in the number of "accountants" that companies are employing.  It seems these days that every Director, CFO or CEO, seems to expect 3, 4 or 5% revenue gains and profits every quarter to be successful. That is just not sustainable in most sectors and businesses and leads to a lack of investment (spending on modernisation, lean, efficiency and people eats into short term returns), short term planning cycles and a boom, boom, bust approach. Recent examples of this include Carillion, Interserve and almost took Capita out. A lot of decision making today, in government and business, is for short term gain and damn the future epitomised by the previous Labour Governments joke of a letter at the Treasury re the cupboards all being emptied!


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35 minutes ago, Bibs said:

Really? You're on thin ice mate, don't take the piss. 

And it's not debate, it's showing the figures you're basing your arguments on are quoted incorrectly for your own ends. That's not debate, that's just correcting inaccuracy which you quote as fact. 

Having recently been in a long term relationship with an EU national living in the UK, I've also seen first hand the huge grey market that exists in the UK for those who have travelled west. Tradesmen turning over £100k+ with no VAT/Corp/Personal tax even being considered and from what I saw, almost immunity from HMRC for it. That's not so easy when you're a UK national with NI number, tax records etc. I'd imagine this white elephant costs our economy a lot more than those on benefits, which are in fact incredibly hard to get for EU nationals in real terms. 

Alright, I'm happy to accept I made a mistake on that one point. I'm man enough to own up put my hands up. I take that as good debate, I'll be the first to say I'm not always right (I usually am though 😛). In this case I'm not convinced it changed the argument significantly. 

I'm afraid I can't find anything useful on tax evasion. From my own experience then, I'd say it's pretty mixed. Dealing with the trades does seem to be where it is most prevalent, and I do try and avoid it. 

I do hope you won't stifle the conversation on this thread. I've never addressed a personal attack at anyone, and I've not complained (only questioned) when it has been directed at me. The argument can get a bit heated on occasion and I personally don't mind it (even when it got personal towards me) and I don't have anything against @C8RKH, nor would I want him silenced either.

Edited by JG220

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Had some deja-vu this morning. I think I mentioned way back in these 100 pages a friend who lived next door to a flat in Acton occupied by Latvians, about how they milk the benefits system, by their own admission. In their case by setting up fake minicab companies to facilitate NI numbers and claiming in-work and other benefits although they are not working or in some cases not even in the country.

I have builders in today at home and they happen to be Latvian. We were discussing Brexit, and he said his view is the UK really needs to crack down on the abuse of benefits by EU migrants, he stated it is rampant in the Latvian community and he sometimes wonders why he is working hard while many of his fellow citizens do nothing. 

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2.2% of claimants are from the EU

7.0% of workers in the Uk are from the EU

4.0% of the workers in the UK are from outside the EU.

EU born migrants contribute an average GBP2,300 more than the average

UK born people contribute in average GBP70 less than average

Non-EU migrants contribute in average GBP800 less than average.

The UK government has been running a permanent deficit meaning the average Individual receives more (service, benefits, etc) than he/she contributes.(about GBP800 per inhabitant)

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Its getting exciting! I just dont know which way this whole mess is going to go!

If we do not leave on the 29 thats me done for any politics. We have the local elections in May and if we are not out Im spoiling my vote with "BREXIT" in large letters.

I know it will make no difference but If we dont leave I just dont see the point of parliament. 

http://www.votenone.org.uk/protest_votes_count.html

 

I actually think there will be some hell unleashed if we dont leave. The poll tax riots got things changed after some civil unrest..

 

buddsy

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31 minutes ago, Buddsy said:

If we do not leave on the 29 thats me done for any politics

Sounds like you are done with politics then as the only thing we seem to know now is that we are not leaving on the 29th.

we are leaving on the 12th, or on the 22nd or later or never.

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4 hours ago, PAR said:

2.2% of claimants are from the EU

7.0% of workers in the Uk are from the EU

4.0% of the workers in the UK are from outside the EU.

EU born migrants contribute an average GBP2,300 more than the average

UK born people contribute in average GBP70 less than average

Non-EU migrants contribute in average GBP800 less than average.

The UK government has been running a permanent deficit meaning the average Individual receives more (service, benefits, etc) than he/she contributes.(about GBP800 per inhabitant)

Erm, sorry but no!

It means the Government has been spending more than it earns and not all of what it spends goes to individuals. It's not that simple. I am assuming you got that information from the Independent via MSN Money. It wasn't hard to find.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/eu-migrant-workers-contribute-%C2%A32300-more-per-year-to-uk-than-average-british-citizen-study-reveals/ar-BBNuuid


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1 hour ago, Buddsy said:

The poll tax riots got things changed after some civil unrest..

Buddsy - I share your despair over the current lapse of political reasoning but what is going on right now is simply unfair to the 17.whatever million voters who 'won' the referendum.

The Poll Tax, however ferocious the backlash against the then Govt was at least fair, just woefully implemented (hang on, I see a common thread).

I'll admit that back in the day, I was as much against the introduction of the PT as the next ill informed youth. I had previously paid nothing towards the cost of local Govt but had enjoyed the right/option of voting without paying the cost of the outcome. The PRINCIPLE of the PT was, in hindsight (IMO), spot on - If 4 people of voting age live in a single property, why should the owner of the house pick up the cost of the PT (or Council Tax for that matter?) when they, as the one that picked up the tab for the effectiveness (or otherwise) of the local Council, only influenced the vote by a corresponding 25% (in my given example)? Fact is, the old rates system was catastrophically out of date - rather than introduce the PT in a way that was staggered to overcome the cliff edge of change and also a massive revaluation (that had been avoided for years), the Govt tried to do everything in one go - ergo, the disaster that ensued.

I don't want to get bogged down in how woefully underfunded (and inefficient) Local Govts are but I just wanted to point out that the riots in relation to the PT were very different in nature to anything that follows as a result of Brexit failure....

Happy days!


Is the price for that bit in Yen or £?

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It’ll make the polltax riots look like a tea party if the politicians don’t get on with it


Only here once

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I shall have a cup of strong tea, curl my stiff upper lip, and just go about life as normal irrespective of what happens. I mean, good heavens, what could go wrong whether we go or stay. I mean, I've lost all hope anyway as in 2022 all new cars will now need to be fitted with a GPS connected device that will stop you going over the speed limit, thanks to the EU, and the UK have already said they will comply, some 3 years after we were supposed to take back control. Oh, woe is me. All is lost. Time for a chocolate hob knob - assuming McVities hasn't moved production of those to Holland or some other far off place...


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3 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

in 2022 all new cars will now need to be fitted with a GPS connected device

Ha Ha

1. GPS in Norfolk. That'll be the day 😂

2. Me affording a new car 🤣 Given that I haven't had a car less than 7 years old in forever, that'll be 2029 before I'm buying into that tech. I'll be 62 by then - reckon I'll just put a rebuilt engine in the 4.0lt V8 Mk2 Rangerover and die happy!

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Is the price for that bit in Yen or £?

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5 hours ago, PAR said:

2.2% of claimants are from the EU

EU born migrants contribute an average GBP2,300 more than the average

UK born people contribute in average GBP70 less than average

 

2.2% of benefit claimants being from the EU is 2.2% too many. It should be zero.

Of course UK born people contribute far less on average. One in six of them are pensioners. Should they all be contributing? How many EU born pensioners are there?

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I think I've just morphed into Jeremy Clarkson (without the gut - his is getting HUGE btw!)


Is the price for that bit in Yen or £?

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Service, benefits, etc: nhs, administration, police, army, roads, education, benefits. Spending per inhabitant, if it makes it clearer.

The UK like most other European economy bar Germany is spending more than they collect hence the debt get started passed on to future generations. Governments are able to continue this extra spending as their economy grows with both a GDP per person growth and and a demographic increase. The demographic increase is mostly net migration driven.

HMRC have published the income tax and NIC paid by EU nationals in 2015 with a breakdown by country of origins and the benefits they have received. There is also a distribution of where they rank in terms of tax contribution vs the average in the U.K. For example 37% of EEA nationals living in the U.K. are in the top 1% of UK tax payers and 81% are in the top 25%.

For example, 482 thousand poles paid income tax and 666 thousand paid national Insurance contribution paying respectively 1040 millions and 1400 millions. On the other side of this, polish people received 966m of tax credits and child benefits.

French people living in the UK paid 2529 millions and received 92m.

Latvian people paid 255m and received 132m

 

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8 hours ago, PAR said:

For example 37% of EEA nationals living in the U.K. are in the top 1% of UK tax payers and 81% are in the top 25%.

For example, 482 thousand poles paid ...... 1040 millions and 1400 millions. On the other side of this, polish people received 966m 

French people living in the UK paid 2529 millions and received 92m.

Latvian people paid 255m and received 132m

 

So shall we ship out the English and replace them with much more profitable EU citizens?

Surely as its simple economics.

 

buddsy

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"Belief is the enemy of knowing" - Crrow777

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@PAR you are quoting a lot of statistics and as everyone knows you can make statistics say whatever you want based upon subtle changes to wording.

Are you really suggesting that an Eastern European fruit picker/farm worker is in the top 1% of contributors to the UK? After all, isn't it the large numbers of these people that supposedly upset the people who voted leave?  The vast majority of the French people employed in the Uk are employed in Financial Services in London - they skew things quite a lot.

I'm struggling to understand the points you are trying to make to be honest with this line of posting, but, i do accept that could be because I am just stupid.

Your previous post re the spending just do not make sense with the one before - on the one hand you are talking about a measure of individual contribution and then you are wildly, in my opinion, then trying to compare that to Government spending policy on "Service, benefits, etc: nhs, administration, police, army, roads, education, benefit" and thee are just not the same things.  I'm sorry but I am confused.


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