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Barrykearley

Euro question - 23rd June

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1 hour ago, 100th_Idiot said:

We can only set import tarrifs. No obligation for countries to reciprocate so our exports would be unchanged

My understanding of WTO rules (Which already apply to our current trading terms with non EU countries under EU rules), is,  we trade under WTO rules with the option of free trade with whomsoever we wish (our preferred trading Partners). 

Meanwhile whilst our naive politicians have been fannying around, the unelected heads of the dictatorship have been feverishly beavering away to undermine our advantageous position by suddenly backtracking on its own policies and recently just agreed preferred partner free trade arrangements with Singapore and Japan under WTO for fear of the UK leaving and beating them to it unilaterally. 

The EU knows full well that under a hard brexit scenario it would be financially suicidal for them to fail to agree to a free trade deal with the UK, they may chose that course of action to show solidarity, in which case a very nice tariff percentage of the huge trade deficit would end up in the HMRC coffers.

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8 hours ago, Steve V8 said:

My understanding of WTO rules (Which already apply to our current trading terms with non EU countries under EU rules), is,  we trade under WTO rules with the option of free trade with whomsoever we wish (our preferred trading Partners). 

Meanwhile whilst our naive politicians have been fannying around, the unelected heads of the dictatorship have been feverishly beavering away to undermine our advantageous position by suddenly backtracking on its own policies and recently just agreed preferred partner free trade arrangements with Singapore and Japan under WTO for fear of the UK leaving and beating them to it unilaterally. 

The EU knows full well that under a hard brexit scenario it would be financially suicidal for them to fail to agree to a free trade deal with the UK, they may chose that course of action to show solidarity, in which case a very nice tariff percentage of the huge trade deficit would end up in the HMRC coffers.

I don't think Japan and Singapore deals are under WTO. They are separate trade deals. There are 168 I think signatories to WTO and under that you cannot differentiate import tariffs between countries.

You are free under WTO to negotiate independent trade deals but we all know that can take several years. 

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4 hours ago, 100th_Idiot said:

I don't think Japan and Singapore deals are under WTO.

My point exactly...Japan Singapore and all EU block countries are signed up to WTO, yet deals have been negotiated, the UK is currently unable to negotiate any trade deals off its own back, we are tied to the EU and cannot negociate unilaterally UNLESS WE LEAVE WITHOUT A DEAL.

 

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1 hour ago, Steve V8 said:

My point exactly...Japan Singapore and all EU block countries are signed up to WTO, yet deals have been negotiated, the UK is currently unable to negotiate any trade deals off its own back, we are tied to the EU and cannot negociate unilaterally UNLESS WE LEAVE WITHOUT A DEAL.

 

Sort of. I think we are having discussions but formally we are not allowed to negotiate or sign a deal until we leave the EU. 

Depending on the deal we leave with we may or may not be able to negotiate independent trade arrangements. Depends what the dela is.

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Which is why we should leave without a deal.

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The countries such as S Korea have very sensibly rubber-stamped an agreement whereby the existing EU trade agreement is extended to us when we leave. 

Its really only the EU itself which is being awkward about all of this. After we leave with no deal the EU countries will have to fall into line with this also.

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19 hours ago, 100th_Idiot said:

The EU were always going to negotiate in their interest and make it very difficult for the UK to make an example to others. That was obvious before the referendum.

 

True.

I voted leave, and I'd do it again because I don't believe in the United States of Europe or the EU Army, or that Donald Tusk, Nige and the rest of the EU grey men should have unrestricted access to an unlimited trough of gravy. 

However....... (a) I don't think it's going to happen now and (b) I'm not entirely sure I actually want it to.

There are at least two great things that being in the EU protects us from:

(a) a flood of cheap, chlorine washed and/or pumped full of antibiotics, meat together with a raft of GM food that we can guarantee will be foisted on us under any US trade deal, which EU standards do not allow; and more importantly

(b) Prime Minister Jezza nationalising the fuck out of everything under the sun, due to the EU's rules on State Aid. Without the EU framework, Jezza has the unrestricted ability to create his communist utopia of Venezuela-sur-la-manche. The Labour Communist Party are a bigger threat to the safety, security and prosperity of this country than Brexit. I firmly believe that. If the choice is to remain in the EU, or suffer the champagne socialist and protest vote leaving us with PM Jez and the consequential punitive income and property taxes, flights of capital and general communist politics of envy, I choose the EU every single time. Given the shambolic state of the Conservative party, and the likely (highly polarising) outcome of Boris as Mother T's successor, I can't help feeling that PM Jez is a real risk. If for the next election (which could be in a matter of weeks folks!) we have a choice of PM Boris or PM Jezza, lord only knows where we'll end up. Perhaps begging the EU to save us from the red terror... At least China owns a lot of the UK's debt, and under a communist PM would no doubt waive whatever he asks them to. 

I remain(!) hopeful that the Conservative Party will prevent this disaster from happening. I am not a member but personally I like Gove. He gets things done. God forbid we end up with PM Boris being prevented by parliament from a hard Brexit/no confidence vote => general election => ............ 

If someone on the remain side had campaigned on what the EU actually does for us, rather than just saying "vote for the status quo", I'm not sure we'd be in this mess.

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The mass confusion from innuendo , false news and scare stories etc, is the tool of the EU to unsettle and destabilise  British politics.  Its working ever so well.... because the media machine backed by the EU keeps fueling it... aaaaand people believe everything the hear/read... 

I read and are dismayed by the headlines regarding a No Deal Brexit PM being appointed then sabotaged by a parliamentary vote of no confidence , forcing a general election..     They will do this to stop a No Deal Brexit,  but these same numpties voted against the EU deal TM negotiated .  This is the only deal the EU was offering, NONE Negotiable....    Do these self righteous twits think that is going to change with just a new face in front of them ....... Dream on , the EU have all the cards why should they change their position..    BUT  ...  If a no deal is back on the table with a PM and goverment to back it , the EU will start to twitch... Then if we make it clear we are quite prepared to leave with a NO Deal  as the inconvenience and upheaval is no worse than what the EU are offering, then the tables are turned..     Rest assured the EU will take it to the wire, they always do, so we will need a PM with a strong resolve to be prepared to stand by the convictions and leave with a NO Deal if needs be..

The only thing that is obvious to all is if a General Election is forced on us, then we are even deeper in the do do than before..   The Brexit situation will not have changed at all  and our position in the EU weaker than ever from all points, with one possible and unlikely scenario.... The Brexit party...    The Brexit party is a very under estimated element in all this, but has and is gaining more and more support from the people..  Lets face it , the people are the ones that vote..   Oh sorry i forgot , we did on the 23rd of june 2016..  But when that did not come out as the influential few expected look what happened.. It would be interesting to see response if Brexit Party became a political player and could influence policy..   They were very quickly dismissed by the media after the EU elections.   However lets not forget , these devious underhand manipulators are very aware of the truth , They do understand the Brexit Party has a strong and growing following , should they get enough suitable people to stand as MP's along with a credible manifesto , they could be in with a shout.    So be prepared for an instant vote of no confidence by parliament to be implemented the moment a new PM is appointed , (if a no deal supporter).   This will be the only way they could minimise the Brexit Party threat, by not allowing it enough time to get fully organised..

So when you way up all the facts,  what a bloody mess we are in . A self induced mess from our own democratically elected representatives who are supposed to uphold the will of the people.   Conspiracy theorist can have a field day with all this .  What is and has been going on behind closed doors is defiantly detrimental to the peoples wishes.. 

@C8RKH  Threw dolly out with teddy , and the £550 in the post in case Rant not up to spec' .....  :rtfm:      

   

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Ive wanted to leave with no deal from the start.

But thats just a negotiation start. 

Its like going to buy a car and knowing its the only car for sale, telling them you got £10K but you dont want to spend all that..oh and you are going on holiday at the end of the month so you are going to need it by then.

Its going to cost you £10k as the buyer knows hes got you over a barrel!

 

The EU have said the deal they've offered is the best they will do. Fine. We dont have to accept. We walk away then wait for them to come back to us when they realise they want to sell to us.

 

I see the fear porn stating "think of our car industry! WTO rules would mean 20% tariff on car exports" How many cars do will produce here? How many do we import?

 

buddsy


 

"Belief is the enemy of knowing" - Crrow777

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17 hours ago, Gashead1105 said:

I remain(!) hopeful that the Conservative Party will prevent this disaster from happening. I am not a member but personally I like Gove. He gets things done. God forbid we end up with PM Boris being prevented by parliament from a hard Brexit/no confidence vote => general election => ............ 

I think that's the way its going. I am 90% sure a hard line Brexiteer will be next PM, especially now Labour are setting their stall out for a second vote or no leave. The only route the Tories can go down is the leave party. However, what I think will happen is this:

Conservatives become Leave party of choice after getting a leave Leader
Parliament refuse Leave/no deal and vote to stop it
Huge backlash and General Election called
Brexit party get a large majority as they will then be the only leave party because everyone will be disillusioned with a hung parliament and Tories inability to achieve result of referendum
(Lets not forget 32% of the population is normally a Majority and potentially Brexit Party could get near 50%)
Brexit party Majority vote leave no deal. Job gets done anyway.

 


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@Kimbers don't agree with you, the Brexit Party => split vote => PM Jez. As per Peterborough. There's no way they get a majority, they have no other policies.  I suppose the one good thing about PM Boris is that Farage dies in a ditch politically, he can go back to the Brussels trough 

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I disagree. If the above happens and they don't leave by October I truly believe the Majority of leave voters will get behind the Brexit Party. And Birmingham, Labour won by a measily 700 votes and lost 17% of their total. After just a couple of months the Brexit party were a close second. You are forgetting the "I'm pissed off enough" vote that would happen should Parliament poo poo brexit. Lets face it the Politicians didn't want it in the first place! Self interest and their pensions are far more important than doing what their Consitituents voted for! Look at Boston and Maidstone. Both had huge Majority leave votes, 76% in the case of Boston. yet their MP's have constantly voted to remain and blocked any leave deal.

I genuinely think people are pissed off enough to win a Majority for the Brexit Party. They won't be a single issue party for long if they see an opportunity. Believe me!

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But wouldn't the next general election be less about Brexit than about the Health Service and austerity, just like last time?

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The EU are going to be forcing the dismantling of the NHS should we remain a member


Only here once

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36 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

The EU are going to be forcing the dismantling of the NHS should we remain a member

Please explain why they would do that?

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The EU are completely against ongoing state aid supporting organisations and businesses. 

This is one of the reasons we aren’t bailing out British steel. It’s also one of the reasons comrade Corbyn will struggle in his desire to nationalise things if ever he got to he pm.


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7 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

The EU are completely against ongoing state aid supporting organisations and businesses. 

This is one of the reasons we aren’t bailing out British steel. It’s also one of the reasons comrade Corbyn will struggle in his desire to nationalise things if ever he got to he pm.

Someone needs to tell the blatant protectionist governments of France, Spain and Germany that!

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Yup - one rule for one - one for another. That was typical behaviour of the last European take over project as well


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The EU being against state aid and nationalisation is the reason Corbyn has always been anti-EU.

On the subject of Boris, pretty much everyone I know, almost all Conservative voters, cant stand him. 

The prospect of Labour getting in terrifies me and is becoming real. This was brought home by a Corbyn supporter on the QT panel last night who repeated several totally fake allegations against the Tories such as they have "killed 100,000 people". She went completely unchallenged. There is a mindset which has become so entrenched amongst a section of the population, mostly the young, which will ensure they vote Labour. On the other hand there are huge numbers of ex-Tory voters who will not vote for Boris. 

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3 minutes ago, Andyww said:

The EU being against state aid

So under what rules do SNCF (French state owned railways) operate, they even own majority shares in Govia who run one of the UK rail franchises and plow UK profits back into the French railways. The Germans are no better with Deutche Bahn. In what world can this be considered a fair even approach?

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@march - you could add Airbus, Suez, Veolia, EdF, PSA, etc.

German industry gets subsidised energy as domestic consumers pay a levy to support them! 


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11 minutes ago, march said:

So under what rules do SNCF (French state owned railways) operate, they even own majority shares in Govia who run one of the UK rail franchises and plow UK profits back into the French railways. The Germans are no better with Deutche Bahn. In what world can this be considered a fair even approach?

There are two supposed rules. Firstly they are already state owned so the EU is apparently OK with that. Another is there is a list of vital industries which countries can add to, to be allowed to be exempt from the other rules and be protected from foreigh buyouts. The French simply added pretty much every big company to the list. The UK on the other hand only has Rolls Royce aero engines and a few others on the list. TBH the UK government are as much to blame as the EU.

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12 minutes ago, Andyww said:

TBH the UK government are as much to blame as the EU.

Completely agree, our varying governments over the years have been expert at shooting ourselves in the foot.

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Max Hastings, who used to be Boris's boss at the Telegraph sums up the view I, and many others have about him, and the reason Corbyn will be handed the next election:

 

boris.jpg

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