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Barrykearley

Euro question - 23rd June

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Looks like an elections coming. Boris is going to cleanse the party of remainers and push for a majority if these delaying tactics look to bear fruit


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4 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Looks like an elections coming. Boris is going to cleanse the party of remainers and push for a majority if these delaying tactics look to bear fruit

Looking unlikely we will get an election before the 31st


hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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On 30/08/2019 at 16:48, oilmagnet477 said:

Everyone complaining about the 'unconstitutional' behaviour of our new PM MUST be a COMPLETE FU**WIT!

How long ago were the EU stating as FACT that the negotiation was FINISHED and the Negotiators had been sent home.

Now we hear that Boris's people are having round the clock meetings to try and thrash out a deal. WHY? Because the EU believe we will leave without a deal.

If the 'remoaning' and or clueless wankers that sit in Governement cannot see this they are not fit to be in charge. As for John Major - bit fucking late mate - you had your chance and royally fucked it up!

I'm so angry I could throw the phone down!!!!!

I can assure you that there are no 'round the clock' meetings going on no matter what Boris suggests. There is only one significant thing blocking the transition deal (and remember this is not the trade deal etc, that comes later) and that is the Irish border backstop. Ironically no deal will mean border checks which seems to go unmentioned by Boris. The EU do believe we will leave without a transition deal, but there is very little the EU can do about it. It is for the UK to come up with an alternative to the backstop and that is very unlikely to happen and certainly nothing has been proposed as yet. Incidentally even if a deal was agreed by Parliament there would still need to be an extension in all likelihood to get the legislation through for it.

What you also need to consider is that leaving without a deal would mean the UK is the only country in the world attempting to trade using exclusively WTO rules. Trade deals would take many years to complete with the EU, China and USA during which time we would be at the mercy of everybody else when it comes to trade and tariffs. Quite a brave move and a one way trip the consequences of which don't bear thinking about. Believe me if WTO trading was so good why does everybody negotiate trade deals ! So actually rather than berating those trying to block a no deal Brexit you should be supporting those attempting to get the deal done (assuming you are pro leave which from the tone of your post I suspect you are!) 

 

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18 minutes ago, pete said:

Looking unlikely we will get an election before the 31st

That depends on what happens over the next few days and how the election, if it is triggered, comes. If the government trigger it they get to choose the date (I don't think even Boris would be stupid enough to schedule it after 31/10). If it comes via a vote of no confidence and an interim government then the new government gets to choose the date, however that is likely to be after an extension. Boris is desperate to avoid legislation forcing him to ask for an extension if no deal is done by the 19/10 ( the no deal bill cut off date) and will trigger an election before that so that he doesn't have to do it. He might just get away with an extension to get the legislation through parliament if a deal has been done.

Boris made a rod for his own back with his 31/10 and no extension, as without any real solutions to the backstop and no majority (and a clear cross party majority against no deal before, which still seems to be the case) he is looking likely to be the shortest term PM ever. It all depends on what happens in the next couple of days but it will be a fast moving situation

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Irish border backstop - this is simply a perverse pressure point being applied by the EU.

please do remind me the border checks on the Swiss /EU boundaries.

Boris needs to be firm on the border - we won’t be putting any in place - the Eu will be the ones doing so if ever the border checks resume

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Because the next election is not due until 2022 it requires a 2/3 rd majority in parliament and I don't think that will happen


hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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Yes it would be a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas for many MPs. They might like getting on their ideological soap boxes at every opportunity, but if the reality of an election means losing their lucrative jobs, then they’ll stick with the status quo.

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10 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Irish border backstop - this is simply a perverse pressure point being applied by the EU.

please do remind me the border checks on the Swiss /EU boundaries.

Boris needs to be firm on the border - we won’t be putting any in place - the Eu will be the ones doing so if ever the border checks resume

Ehh ? Irish backstop arrangement is to ensure an open border which is a key demand for both the UK and the Irish and enshrined in the Good Friday agreement. If Boris can come up with an alternative arrangement that satisfies everybody then away we go - but it has to actually work not some nebulous enthusiastic ideas and he has about 4 weeks to come up with it! Remember that the 'deal' version of Brexit is simply a negotiating period for the trade agreement whilst maintaining tariff free trade. If that negotiation fails, then if the border is to remain open there has to be a backstop arrangement. Negotiating trade deals takes years and a hard Brexit leaves us out in the cold whilst trying to negotiate a trade deal. 

Switzerland has a trade agreement with the EU hence no border checks. No deal brexit means WTO rules, means border controls full stop. Doesn't matter what we do, the Irish will be mandated to apply checks as part of the EU unless the checks are done between Ireland and the rest of the EU which would be perverse as an EU member and very unlikely.

Too many people are uninformed and I'm afraid the current government are not helping that.

 

 

Edited by gregs24
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9 hours ago, pete said:

Because the next election is not due until 2022 it requires a 2/3 rd majority in parliament and I don't think that will happen

That is not correct

That only applies under the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011. If there is a vote of no confidence in the government, then unless an alternative government or the original government can win a majority there will be an election. Boris now has no majority and it requires only a simple majority of 1 to form a government. This is why a coalition of all of the opposition parties is the most likely way forward as an interim government with a few rebel Tories joining in. This would also stop Boris proroguing parliament as he would no longer be PM.

This is a key factor over the next few days. Boris is likely to try and trigger an election if the act looks like getting through parliament to block a no deal. If he wins a 2/3 majority he calls the shots on the election date and crucially can change the date at a later date - in this case to post 31/10 forcing through a no deal Brexit before the election. Opposition parties are very unlikely to support this, so it is far more likely that it will be rejected and a vote of no confidence take place. This puts the power over choosing the date in the hands of the opposition and not Boris. Subtle but crucial differences that will be dressed up in political rhetoric over the next few days.

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Sorry but that was correct assuming Boris calls for an election. The second option of a vote of no confidence does take away that right however that means parliament temporary voting in Corbyn as prime minister , good luck with that.


hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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10 minutes ago, pete said:

 however that means parliament temporary voting in Corbyn as prime minister , good luck with that.

Never gonna happen - they all dislike him more than Boris. 

We need an election and need one now. These fools have had a long time to get us out of the EU and they simply aren’t delivering  


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6 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Never gonna happen - they all dislike him more than Boris. 

We need an election and need one now. These fools have had a long time to get us out of the EU and they simply aren’t delivering  

Then with an election who takes you out of the Eu? 

 


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An election is no good for anyone,we will end up with a hung parliament and possibly months of squabbling amongst them all as they try to form a government. Don't see how MPs can vote out no deal when it is the default,only way will be to revoke article 50.


hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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Don’t think a hint Parliament will occur - let’s just look at the success of the brexit party in the euros.

 

many in the north will not vote Tory - but won’t vote remain labour - here comes a Tory / Brexit coalition


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Unless they agree which seats they are going to contest the Brexit party will split the conservative vote and neither will win if that happens


hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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Not so sure @pete - looks like Boris will deselect all remained Tory’s - so that’ll probably put that beyond doubt.

i don’t think anyone can doubt Boris’s brexit intentions 


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He probably will but they may then stand as an independent which will dilute the conservative vote even more


hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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3 hours ago, pete said:

Sorry but that was correct assuming Boris calls for an election. The second option of a vote of no confidence does take away that right however that means parliament temporary voting in Corbyn as prime minister , good luck with that.

That is what I meant - Your comment was correct, but I don't think that is how an election will be called hence why I don't think you are right that there will be no election. It doesn't have to be Corbyn as PM down that route either.

 

The only thing that is certain is that about half of the population will be unhappy whichever way things go !

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Same as if the party leader changes, or a party changes their policies, all that we technically vote for is a single person to be our representative. We then rely on that person to make good judgement decisions as to what the majority of the constituents would agree is appropriate (as if.....).

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1 hour ago, oilmagnet477 said:

If an MP defects, how come that doesn't immediately trigger a bi-election?

Absolutely ridiculous, another example of an elected representative of the people misusing the powers entrusted to them by their electorate. 

I'm disgusted by the arrogance of these self important, self centered people, yes people is all they are, in many cases not very bright, I'll informed, and so far up their own asses that they forget those of us who put them where they are.

It's just laughable to hear these cretins speak of democracy whilst changing the rule book to undermine a democratic vote. DEMOCRACY IS DEAD

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I try to apply a bit of logic to this, and have to say the 20 odd rebels probably didn't do this for their own interests. They've just ended their own careers/salaries etc.

I have no.interest in trying to persuade people to be pro or anti Brexit, seems.to me no one ever changes their mind. But I do like to give most people enough credit to accept they are doing what they think is best for people/the UK.

But this js a terribly unfashionable view, so you can all tell me to f*** off.

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1 hour ago, martynw said:

I try to apply a bit of logic to this, and have to say the 20 odd rebels probably didn't do this for their own interests. They've just ended their own careers/salaries etc.

I have no.interest in trying to persuade people to be pro or anti Brexit, seems.to me no one ever changes their mind. But I do like to give most people enough credit to accept they are doing what they think is best for people/the UK.

But this js a terribly unfashionable view, so you can all tell me to f*** off.

It’s not unfashionable at all, you have as much right to speak your mind on this forum as anyone else, the hard Brexiteers will definitely disagree and by the why I totally agree with you, a no deal is not what the country needs, so it’s simple MPs putting people’s livelihoods especially the younger generation before party politics in my opinion is noble, great to see bullying in any form is not the answer and as been put back where it belongs in the gutter.

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