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Euro question - 23rd June

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4 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

What do we think will really happen between now and 29.03.19? If/when Teresa May's deal gets voted down in the Commons next month, do we think she will have to step down? In which case is another General Election most likely and quite possibly a Corbyn win, or do we let the Conservative Party choose another Prime Minister themselves to see out the rest of her term? Whoever takes over would then have to steer us through the first couple of years of a No Deal Brexit.

On news night last night there were 7 MPs, representing various parties, and each one had a different solution if the vote is voted down. We have no chance of our parliament reaching an agreement on this.

 

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hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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Sadly these MPs seem to be forgetting two simple things.

 

1 - free market economy 

2 - globalisation 

 

 

cheers and up yours Mrs Merkel and that drunken old lush


Only here once

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I'm now wishing my parents had been ten pound poms. I could have got my grand kids away from two faced lying bas""""rd politicians.

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56 minutes ago, pete said:

On news night last night there were 7 MPs, representing various parties, and each one had a different solution if the vote is voted down. We have no chance of our parliament reaching an agreement on this.

 

Everyone has an opinion, which they believe is correct, quoting all sorts of distorted twisted facts and the media just report without questioning..

No one can tell the future, only the past. Whatever happens we will only really know who was right in another 10 years.

Until then it’s “Vested Interests Rule” without any questioning or interrogation of so called facts by our useless media.

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Reminds me of the millennium bug scare. we are still here. Tell the EU to get stuffed.

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6 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

What do we think will really happen between now and 29.03.19? If/when Teresa May's deal gets voted down in the Commons next month, do we think she will have to step down? In which case is another General Election most likely and quite possibly a Corbyn win, or do we let the Conservative Party choose another Prime Minister themselves to see out the rest of her term? Whoever takes over would then have to steer us through the first couple of years of a No Deal Brexit.

Not sure if you're trying to troll or genuinely trying to add to the debate, but I'll assume the latter.

Let me turn your questions around and ask you in a different way.

What do YOU think will really happen between now and 29.03.19? If/when Teresa May's deal gets voted down in the commons next month do YOU think she will have to step down? In which case is another General Election most likely and quite possibly a Corbyn win, or do we let the Conservative Party choose another Prime Minister themselves to see out the rest of her term? Whoever takes over would then have to steer us through the first couple of years of a No Deal Brexit.

Would be interested in your direct answers to the questions you posed yourself.

To be fair, I will give you my answers:

1. I think that between now and 29.03.2019 we will continue to argue the toss for and against with no pause for breath

2. I don't think she will have to step down. Remember, it was Cameron not May who called the referendum and it was May who stepped in to the hot seat when the cowardly Cameron ceded his seat.  She took a "no win" role and she has tried to do her best for the country. We can argue over her effectiveness, but, when the country needed a leader she was the first out of the trenches when the whistle was blown. She deserves some credit for that given that she was a confirmed Remainer who took the role on. Remember, she consistently out performs Corbyn, even now, in polls around who is best to lead the UK through this, that has to tell you something about Corbyn's electability as PM give the shambles we are in!  (or am I just being nuts?)

3. I do not think another general election is likely. The Government can choose to "govern" as a minority and in some cases that may be better than relying on the confidence and supply agreement with the nutters in the DUP.

Over to you @LotusLeftLotusRight as i eagerly await your thoughts and POV.

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Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!        

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A few days ago I was having coffee with some friends when, out of the blue, one of them asked me what I thought  of the whole UK/EU/Brexit situation. My  immediate reaction was to blurt out "It's a rolling [email protected]#k."

I hope that I wasn't too far out of the bounds of accuracy and propriety with that assessment.

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Mike

'97 V8

'73 Europa TC

'10 Elise SC

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OK then, cards on the table. I have dipped in and out of this thread intermittently since it began in 2016. There was an active Remain / Leave debate on here back then. I voted Remain so was one of those who lost the referendum. I guess it is unsurprising that Remainer thread activity on here has fallen away since then.

Now that we are approaching the end-game I popped back in again to learn what people think will actually happen, since it is clearly going to have a major impact on all of our futures. Instead I find that the thread has turned into some kind of Bremoaner media gossip column, with posters telling us that "He said this" or "She said that". Clearly nothing anyone writes on here will make the slightest difference to what is going to happen. I just want to know how TLFers think this will pan out over the next 4 months.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it is almost universally assumed that Teresa May's deal will get voted down on 11 December 2018. She (and the EU) has repeatedly confirmed that there is no other Deal available, so we revert to a No Deal scenario by default. Yes, she may have been a Remainer but the Conservative Party themselves elected her to lead us through the negotiations ahead of other high profile candidates. If the Commons vote is indeed No to her Deal, then should she not stand down as having fundamentally failed in her efforts?

In my opinion this is when it gets really tricky. There's only one thing the Conservative Brexiteer MPs worry about more than staying in the EU and that is staying in their own jobs. If Teresa May goes, then the clamour for a General Election will be enormous from all of the other Parties, who currently have a combined majority of the Commons seats. Having already seen how poorly the last GE went for the Conservative Party under more benign circumstances, I believe they will do whatever they can to prevent a GE being called and attempt to see out the rest of the term until 2022. Whether that means keeping Teresa May in the top job, or yet another no-mandate internal appointment, what do you guys think? I tend to agree with C8RKH that she will stay on: I think it is very interesting that it appears that Jacob Rees-Mogg has failed in his attempt to get those 47 other letters of No Confidence in the PM from his colleagues. Had he achieved this, it would have played right into Corbyn's GE-seeking hands, so maybe the rest of the Party is worrying about their own jobs and doesn't want to risk a coup.

Finally one other question: what happens to the NI border after 29.03.19 in the event of No Deal and WTO rules being introduced?

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I would not like to predict any of the above in detail but I will predict that we will and up with the "Hotel California" solution where we check out but never leave.

Unfortunately thats the only "solution" (if it can be called that) which resolves the NI issue.

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My view....

I don't necessarily think it will get voted down. It may do first time around, but it will then be back for a second vote after a lot of internal deal making. If it does get voted down, parliament simply won't accept a no-deal option, so we'll be back to the EU, begging bowl in hand, pleading to extend the deadline, which they'll agree to in exchange for a further €xxbn payment.

As a supporter of a no-deal exit, I would like to think that the result of voting down this 'deal' will result in a no-deal Brexit by default (right outcome for the wrong reason!), but it will never happen.

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I’m starting to worry now. 

We wont have any fresh water, Sterling is gonna fall through the floor, interest rates will rocket, our house prices will collapse, pensions ruined......... hang on 🤔 haven’t we heard all this bullshit before?


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And the treasury have said even with a deal Brexit our economy will shrink by the biggest amount since WW2.

Of course they don't have any vested interest in Brexit and of course they were 100% correct when they said the same would happen after the referendum.....................not

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Possibly save your life. Check out this website.
http://everyman-campaign.org/

 

Distributor for 'Every Male' grooming products. (Discounts for any TLF members hairier than I am!)

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These are scenarios not forecasts so why put them out as if they are fact


hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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8 minutes ago, Kimbers said:

And the treasury have said even with a deal Brexit our economy will shrink by the biggest amount since WW2.

Of course they don't have any vested interest in Brexit and of course they were 100% correct when they said the same would happen after the referendum.....................not

Anybody remember that not long into the mid 2000s Financial Crisis, both the Treasury and the BOE told us we were on the turn upwards and outwards just before the big 2 year dive.

It’s all opinions without justifiable quatified and qualified data, the truth only comes sometime after the events

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There is quite a big change in the media position because the Daily Mail, which has the largest circulation and the most viewed website has changed from leave to remain with its recent change of editor.

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Labour now say a second referendum is inevitable. Bet the question won't be deal or no deal


hindsight: the science that is never wrong

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2 hours ago, pete said:

These are scenarios not forecasts so why put them out as if they are fact

And right now Sky News are busy doing just that with the BoE scenarios.


Margate Exotics.

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1 hour ago, pete said:

Labour now say a second referendum is inevitable. Bet the question won't be deal or no deal

It’ll be do you wish to remain or remain 


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If/when the deal gets voted down......

There will be no general election because turkeys don't vote for Christmas and despite everything the conservatives are still the best (by far) option for the DUP. There might be a leadership challenge and with our political system that's perfectly ok, the new conservative PM can continue until the end of the fixed term if he/she has the stomach for it.

The legislation is already in place for us to leave the EU in March, with or without a deal - in fact I believe it needs NEW legislation to be passed to stop it happening and this will take time. So,there's a real possibility that if the deal gets thrown out by parliament then we leave without one and everyone dies from thirst and starvation the next day.

Parliament could vote through a second referendum but it takes time to do this and again, time is very tight and can you imagine the arguments on how to word the question(s)? My fear for democracy is that they will give a 3-way choice...

1) Stay in the EU

2) Leave the EU with May's deal

3) Leave the EU with no deal

.......thus splitting the leave vote to give 'stay in the EU' a big majority and give the politicians what they want.

My HOPE is that a referendum would simply ask....

1) Stay

2) Leave with no deal

........ this is the only way to get an unambiguous answer and the only way to be sure that the will of the people can be done without any further argument about what it means.

 

Finally, they could go for the ultimate fudge, pass some legislation to extend the article 50 period for another year and kick the can down the road ....again :rofl:

 

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Wow, properly researched and presented POV in a calm and clear manner. Can we have this politician in the UK?  Also, i'd happily take her to dinner and pay for the privilege to hear more! I wouldn't make that offer to a single useless UK politician.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, Corbyn objects to the BBC offer of timing for the joint leaders debate, saying he would prefer ITV to host as they would ensure it did not clash with  the final of I'm a Celebrity. WTF have we become? Really?  Anyone on here still seriously think that this absolute joke of a leader has the credentials to lead this country?

Are we seeing the slow burning of Brussels as Nero and his cronies fail to see the flames leaping up at them? Is the old EU guard changing, for the new?

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Alcohol. Sex. Tobacco. Drugs. Chocolate.  Meh! NOTHING in this world is as addictive as an Evora +0. It's not for babies!        

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