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Barrykearley

Euro question - 23rd June

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Report in today's Times:

Remember the scare stories? Many bankers, politicians and analysts predicted that Brexit would prompt an exodus of financial services jobs and businesses, weakening the City’s dominance as a global financial centre.

Yet with less than four months to go before Britain is set to leave the EU, banks and financial services companies are looking for more new office space in the City than at any time since 2015, according to JLL, the property services company.

The sector is actively looking for a combined 2.4 million sq ft of office space, 37 per cent of total demand and higher than any other sector. Many of those requirements are driven by lease expiries, but some represent an expansion. :rofl:

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Almost all the reports of financial services moving to Frankfurt etc if you look into the small print its actually 50 or so staff moving into a small office there just to have a presence while the other 1000 stay in London.

Also, with recent events in Paris no company is going to HQ there in case Macron re-instates wealth tax.

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It's a shame that the BBC would never think to run a comparison on what was predicted prior to the referendum and what actually happened. It might help people to keep a bit of perspective on how seriously to take the current predictions....

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All the Tier 1 investment banks main operations will remain in London, the only true international financial centre. 

EU offices (Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin etc) are only “satellite” operations to deal with EU business that has to executed using an EU entity. 

It will take years, probably decades, before a credible alternative to London can be established in the EU. It takes time, a lot of time, to set up a true international financial center. 

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Just a thought......

The EU have stated that “the current deal is the only one available, with the only alternatives being No Deal Brexit or No Brexit” whilst indicating that they are not prepared to consider any modification to the terms.

Various alternatives/tweaks  are being proposed by some MPs and then we have Comrade Corbyn starting how he will negotiate a better deal.

Question, will the EU stick to their guns or not?

If they do come back to the negotiating table with someone other than May, are these unelected bureaucrats guilty of stitching up the current U.K. Government’s negotiating team, or even the Government itself if we end up with a general election.

It really is a case of “it’s not over until the fat lady sings”

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I gave you a thumbs up as a remain voter. Clean hard brexit is what I thought we should do immediately after the vote. I could see we would spend two years negotiating and end up with a bad deal in part because it's in the EUs nature not to make it look easy and we had a divided government and country. Was never going to end well.

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What we need to worry about is what will happen when we don't leave, as is almost certain now. There isnt really any point in discussing anything else.

All of the very clever planning and steps which the remainers have taken since day 1 after the vote are coming together and the possibility of a ridiculously-named "people's vote" is increasing day by day.

When the vote happens, enough people will have been scared to swing the result to remain. Then all hell will break loose. Or will it? Most leavers I know are like myself, not the kind of people who are going to be setting fire to cars, French style.

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@Steve V8 let’s get a trip organised 👍

may I suggest we start on tipping over the smaller Aygo type cars and lighting them up - once we’ve got the hang of them we can go for the jags and Chelsea tractors 

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So if the EU will not let us leave are we currently at war?

Wars change over time and gone are the days opposing troops lined up if front of each other. 

Our borders, sovereignty even the will of the people seems to be undermined from foreign organisations.

So my question isn’t as ridiculous as it may seem. Are we at war? A new kind of war, although we do not realise it yet?

Steve Brannon’s thoughts on us leaving the EU...

 

buddsy

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4 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

let’s get a trip organised 👍<span>

I wish I was that guy. I'm not a leader type of person, and certainly not a public speaker. But I'd be there...

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On 19/11/2018 at 09:19, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

To be honest the whole situation would have made a good West End farce.

Act 1: PM #1 decides to include EU referendum in General Election manifesto in attempt to finally silence mutinous Brexiteers.

Act 2: PM #1 wins election with reasonable overall majority and campaigns for Remain in run-up to referendum.

Act 3: PM #1 loses EU referendum by 48.1% to 51.9% and promptly resigns.

Act 4: Party holds leadership election and leading candidate is figuratively stabbed in back by treacherous colleague Gove at last moment.

Act 5: Party elects second choice PM #2 who promises to deliver best Brexit deal for Britain. PM #2 appoints Brexit Secretary #1. PM invokes Article 50. Negotiations with EU commence. Irish border solution is recognised as biggest potential hurdle.

Act 6: PM #2 calls snap General Election in an attempt to significantly increase overal majority and strengthen UK's hand in Brexit negotiations. Result backfires dramatically: overall majority wiped out. Coalition has to be formed with DUP to reach a working majority: the very Party that has a vested interest in the Irish border issue and demands same status as rest of UK in any agreement.

Act 7: Negotiations progress glacially. Deadlines come and go. PM #2 decides to bang her Cabinet's heads together with weekend pizza party at her place and comes up with Chequers deal.

Act 8: Once their heads have cleared, Cabinet ministers start to distance themselves from Chequers deal. Brexit Secretary #1 resigns.

Act 9: Draft Brexit deal is suddenly announced on very last day possible. Brexiteers don't like it, Remainers don't like it and, critically the DUP really don't like it. Labour announces that they will vote against the deal when it comes to Parliament, so with their MPs, many Conservatives and the provincial Parties all expected to vote against, the deal appears to be strangled at birth. Brexit Secretary #2 resigns. PM #2 ploughs on regardless and asks arch villain Gove to be Brexit Secretary #3. He refuses. PM #2 appoints recently resigned ex Home Secretary fourth choice Brexit Secretary #3.

Act 10: To Be Continued.

 

Act 10: vote called-off by PM#2 at 11th hour. The farce continues.

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Oh dear all that effort by the ECJ to push through the "Brexit can be cancelled" judgement 10 times quicker than anything else they have done, to the day before the vote, has been wasted!

Meanwhile the biggest lie in the entire history of Brexit emerges, that it will "cost UK small businesses £20 billion to comply with extra customs requirements". Absolute nonsense. As a small business owner which exports worldwide it will SAVE me money because all countries become equal. No more Intrastat accounts, no more "EC Sales List", No longer any need to ask customers if they are business or private (different EU rules apply for both).

Exporting to EU has always involved more paperwork than to other countries.

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58 minutes ago, Andyww said:

Exporting to EU has always involved more paperwork than to other countries.

Out of interest how many countries in the Eu do you sell into ? I assume under a no deal scenario you’d need to discuss terms with each Eu country?

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12 minutes ago, Stubox said:

I assume under a no deal scenario you’d need to discuss terms with each Eu country?

Why?  The EU is a block, so if you're not in it then you trade from outside the block. But still only "one block" navigate otherwise, well, it's just 27 countries doing what they want (which largely describes the EU anyway). Your question has confused me.

 

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19 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

Why?  The EU is a block, so if you're not in it then you trade from outside the block. But still only "one block" navigate otherwise, well, it's just 27 countries doing what they want (which largely describes the EU anyway). Your question has confused me.

 

So the Eu have agreed that they will construct trade deals with us as a bloc if a no deal is the end game? I genuinely don’t know and was wondering.

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30 minutes ago, Stubox said:

Out of interest how many countries in the Eu do you sell into ? I assume under a no deal scenario you’d need to discuss terms with each Eu country?

There is no need to "discuss terms" with anyone. For all countries, we simply send out the order with an accompanying commercial invoice. If we were really keen we could add a commodity code for the items but even thats not mandatory. Commodity codes are the same for all countries. The commercial invoices are automatically printed.

Additional admin for EU countries while we are in EU is:

Establish whether customer is business or private
If business, dont charge VAT
If private, charge VAT
If business, send name and address and all order details to the EU via HMRC on an "EC sales list"
When completing VAT return, two sets of figures need to be produced, namely intra-EU sales (Intrastat) and all other sales.

 

3 minutes ago, Stubox said:

So the Eu have agreed that they will construct trade deals with us as a bloc if a no deal is the end game? I genuinely don’t know and was wondering.

There is no need for any trade deal to be able to trade. This is made up by the remainers.

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4 minutes ago, Stubox said:

So the Eu have agreed that they will construct trade deals with us as a bloc if a no deal is the end game? I genuinely don’t know and was wondering.

No, I think ( but don't know) that you are looking at this all wrong.

The EU is a trading block for 27 countries. So, if you want to trade with ANY country within the block then you need to trade with the BLOCK's rule - i.e. all 27 countries will trade with YOU the same way - as one. That is the whole point of being a block - so the block members do not need to worry about their own deals as they are covered by the EU one.

Being a part of the EU "block" means that you cannot conduct your own trade deals and this was one of the foundations of the reasons for Brexit - the freedom for the Uk to choose who to trade with and how. So by leaving the EU we get to negotiate a trade deal with the EU block (not with 27 countries, but the EU) AND we get to negotiate a trade deal with whomever else we wish, whether a trading block or an individual country (but not one that is a trading block as you need to trade with the block!).

I'm probably making it harder than it needs to be.

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2 minutes ago, Andyww said:

There is no need to "discuss terms" with anyone. For all countries, we simply send out the order with an accompanying commercial invoice. If we were really keen we could add a commodity code for the items but even thats not mandatory. Commodity codes are the same for all countries. The commercial invoices are automatically printed.

Additional admin for EU countries while we are in EU is:

Establish whether customer is business or private
If business, dont charge VAT
If private, charge VAT
If business, send name and address and all order details to the EU via HMRC on an "EC sales list"
When completing VAT return, two sets of figures need to be produced, namely intra-EU sales (Intrastat) and all other sales.

 

Ok , I only worked in large corporates so no idea on smaller businesses. So the no deal (hopefully) happens and you need to continue business with 2 or 3 countries in the Eu , there’s no Ec sales list anymore as we’ve no transition period. What occurs? Is it business as usual with either an Eu tariff applied or individual country tariffing etc .... again no clue just wondering how it’ll work?

 

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3 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

No, I think ( but don't know) that you are looking at this all wrong.

The EU is a trading block for 27 countries. So, if you want to trade with ANY country within the block then you need to trade with the BLOCK's rule - i.e. all 27 countries will trade with YOU the same way - as one. That is the whole point of being a block - so the block members do not need to worry about their own deals as they are covered by the EU one.

Being a part of the EU "block" means that you cannot conduct your own trade deals and this was one of the foundations of the reasons for Brexit - the freedom for the Uk to choose who to trade with and how. So by leaving the EU we get to negotiate a trade deal with the EU block (not with 27 countries, but the EU) AND we get to negotiate a trade deal with whomever else we wish, whether a trading block or an individual country (but not one that is a trading block as you need to trade with the block!).

I'm probably making it harder than it needs to be.

No get it. I thought I’d seen something that one difference of no deal vs transition period meant we’d have to have individual country tariffing rather than bloc tariffing , if that makes sense. I’ll continue watching Die Hard , thanks .

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