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£62k 400


PaulCP

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47 minutes ago, fesuvious said:

These 400's are dropping, dropping, failing to sell and dropping further - fast!

Hang on. Based on the fact that when James gets his there will be 5 400 owners within 10 miles of where I live, that I know about, I'm not sure that we can say they are not selling. 

On the depreciation front, anyone buying new must be expecting to keep the car for at least 3 years. I accepted up front that after that time my car may only be worth 60% of what I paid for it. If most of that falls in the first 6 months, it doesn't really bother me.

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Assuming that those Evoras which are the cheapest available for sale now are still about £30k, and assuming they cost nearer 55-60k new than 80k, it seems the model has held something like 50% of its value over five years and looks to me like it's plateaued. Given the rarity of them I can't see them going down much more, which means the 400 should find bouyancy much higher as the SR models will sit in the middle and presumably command a premium. All guesswork of course, but it is a similar story with Aston Martins - the early V8 vantage more or less refuses to dip under £30k regardless of spec, and the later 4.7 is very "desirable" so they seem to refuse to go below 45k, etc..

I know JCT have themselves just ordered two new 400s, they need the space. When 50/50 goes (I understand it's not something that's continually offered?) I can see prices normalising again.

Also stop reminding me of that @Gm77 I've told the other half this is a very rare and exclusive car! :D

James Martin (JayEmm)
Director of Photography & Car Enthusiast

Follow my Lotus adventure online! www.jayemm.com

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Also the 410 will always be a rarer and more sought-after model, so even though you start with a higher purchase price, you'll also end up with a higher potential re-sale price than the equivalent 400 throughout the car's life.

Also, compared to even a low mileage demonstrator, you'll be getting a brand new car that no-one else has so much as sat in, so you'll know with absolute certainty that the car has always been looked after properly, run-in correctly and never been damaged.

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The way I look at this £62k 400 is that, at the moment it is a one off and the price probably reflects a combination of excess stock and, by the sound of it, the fact that it needs a bit of TLC. It does however seem a good price for anyone who's prepared to accept the blemishes or get them repaired.

Unless you are part of the "ill gotten gains" crowd (Porsche GT4 springs to mind) you accept that cars depreciate when you buy them, the rate of depreciation being dependent on the age of the car. When I buy cars, once I've satisfied myself that I can afford the screen price, I always try to look at what I think the value will be in 3-5 years time. If I'm happy with that scenario then I go ahead.

Also lets not forget that 20% depreciation on a £80k car is a lot more burnt cash than 20% on a £15k car

FWIW, my personal opinion is the Lotus still got the pricing of the 400 a little too high, although when cash is tight the 3-5 year plan you give to your funders has to stack up. 

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The car only has 3k miles.   How can the condition not be good for a used car? 

Its not an anomaly but the normal process of depreciation.  The S SRs are still due this process as £47k is simply a joke price imo. 

Yes things will plateau but there is still a significant downward level before this happens.   I think pre MY12 cars will settle at £25k, SRs £30-32k and 400s between £35-40k.

Regardless,  I still do not understand why this car doesn't have a 3 year waiting list because to me its competitor is the Ferrari 488 and the Lamborghini Huracan.   These are much more expensive than the 400.  The 400 is therefore a bargain relative to these cars.   I hate that the 400 is frequently compared to the Porsche and loses.   The Porsche is ugly as hell and more of an everyday normal car like a ford mondeo/bmw.  

Edited by Evo400
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3 minutes ago, Evo400 said:

The car only has 3k miles.   How can the condition not be good for a used car? 

 

I believe that this has already been covered :P

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9 hours ago, Evo400 said:

The car only has 3k miles.   How can the condition not be good for a used car? 

Its not an anomaly but the normal process of depreciation.  The S SRs are still due this process as £47k is simply a joke price imo. 

Yes things will plateau but there is still a significant downward level before this happens.   I think pre MY12 cars will settle at £25k, SRs £30-32k and 400s between £35-40k.

Regardless,  I still do not understand why this car doesn't have a 3 year waiting list because to me its competitor is the Ferrari 488 and the Lamborghini Huracan.   These are much more expensive than the 400.  The 400 is therefore a bargain relative to these cars.   I hate that the 400 is frequently compared to the Porsche and loses.   The Porsche is ugly as hell and more of an everyday normal car like a ford mondeo/bmw.  

Couldn't disagree more and no evidence suggests these prices you are predicting will be realised. Simple supply and demand. Fuck all supply and a lot of constant demand. 

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For what it's worth I actually sold assets that were renting and earning money to afford my Evora. Not a financially sound move but I decided the joy it'd bring me would be worth it, and I could always do something sensible later when I have dependents etc...

James Martin (JayEmm)
Director of Photography & Car Enthusiast

Follow my Lotus adventure online! www.jayemm.com

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17 hours ago, Stuno1 said:

Couldn't disagree more and no evidence suggests these prices you are predicting will be realised. Simple supply and demand. Fuck all supply and a lot of constant demand. 

Low mileage 2013 S SRs were being sold for £42k 8 months ago.  I know because a fellow Lotus friend bought one.  Lets see how long the current £47k SRs stay unsold.  How long does a place like Murrays keep his car at £47k before adjusting the price if it doesn't sell?

16 hours ago, ferk1966 said:

3 years time ??? You could be dead , trust me jump on board the lotus train now !! 

:lol: I will definitely be in an Evora before 3 years what ever the price.

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for whats it's worth these are my predictions for the 400, based on the market over the last few years:-

new circa £75K

1yr old circa £59K

2yr old circa £52K

3yr old circa £48K

4yr old circa £42K

 

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1 hour ago, Evo400 said:

Low mileage 2013 S SRs were being sold for £42k 8 months ago.  I know because a fellow Lotus friend bought one.  Lets see how long the current £47k SRs stay unsold.  How long does a place like Murrays keep his car at £47k before adjusting the price if it doesn't sell?

:lol: I will definitely be in an Evora before 3 years what ever the price.

Did very well then as I bought s sr last year (November) for 45k. They were all pretty much that price or higher. 

1 hour ago, marcfair said:

for whats it's worth these are my predictions for the 400, based on the market over the last few years:-

new circa £75K

1yr old circa £59K

2yr old circa £52K

3yr old circa £48K

4yr old circa £42K

 

3 year old s sr is 45k at least and started at 67k so can't ever see a 80k car being that cheap in 3 years. 

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S SRs retaining 70% after 3 years is an incredibly good figure.  60% after 3 years is generally considered an excellent figure.  The S SRs were produced in very very low numbers so will always be rare.  However, the 400 is the better car and will be mass produced relative to the whole S1 Evora models put together let alone the SRs.  This will impact SR prices.

Regarding the 400, this is a £73k car not a £80k car.  Yes the options will make it closer to £80k but it is not considered an £80k car.  If we take 60% of £73k this gives an approx figure of £44K in 3 years time.  At 70% this gives £51K.  Why doesn't £48k sound a reasonable guess to you?  The 400 prices will also have pressure from the 400 roadster something that the S1s didn't have to face.

 

Edited by Evo400
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2 hours ago, marcfair said:

for whats it's worth these are my predictions for the 400, based on the market over the last few years:-

new circa £75K

1yr old circa £59K

2yr old circa £52K

3yr old circa £48K

4yr old circa £42K

 

my 4th year prediction should have been circa £46K which is where they will flatten out at.

just my thoughts based on the Evora S depreciation over the last few years. It will be interesting to see what happens. Maybe I'm just wishful thinking so I can go and  buy one in a few years time  :wub:

 

Edited by marcfair
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On 27 April 2016 at 07:44, Colin G said:

All this remember is over ONE car being £62.5k, and by all accounts it's not exactly excellent condition. 

No, it's almost in perfect condition.There are just one or two very minor things that should have been sorted before it was put in the showroom. An hour or so in the workshop and it would be as-new

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Amen.

I read a post of yours a while back Andy and I thought you were OTT about people trying to talk down prices etc of X and Y model, this thread highlights just how right you were though.

Between this and the miserable US threads it would suck the fun out of ownership on here. Well, if ownership was only middling fun instead of seventeen flavours of awesome sauce that is.

Concentrate on how amazing the cars are instead of prices you miserable ****ers.

:rolleyes::lol:

Though I am already nervous about tomorrow's run out having just looked outside!

 

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You've got a diff, that'll be awesome sauce times a million :D

 

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